Lest We Forget, Johan Santana

Baseball observers have short memories. Check that, people have short memories. Perhaps it is not even a short memory but rather an inborn tendency to look for the next “best thing” rather than watch what is going on in the present. It is a human flaw that is only heightened in Baseball. It happens all the time when a prospect comes to the Major Leagues. 21 or 22 year olds are tagged with being the “next” Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, or Sandy Koufax. People want to find that new sensation and will often forget just how good the current players are.

When surveying the landscape of today’s great pitchers, the same names will always come up. Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, the 2009 Cy Young Award winners, will be mentioned, as will Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, and Jon Lester. If that question was asked just two years ago, the answer would have likely been Johan Santana, then of the Minnesota Twins. The soon-to-be 31 year old has been largely ignored for two reasons. One, he is coming off of a season that ended prematurely with minor elbow surgery to remove some bone spurs. Secondly, he is the star of the New York Mets, a team that has a difficult time cultivating any type of positive image. Despite his employer and his advancing age, Johan Santana is about to remind the Baseball world just how special he really is. For his fledgling team, he is the one legitimate reason to hope that 2010 can be a year to surprise their divisional opponents.

Loss of Stuff?

Much has been made of Santana’s loss of velocity over the past three seasons. Surely, the velocity has decreased. In 2007, he averaged a 91.8 miles per hour fastball. It “fell” to 91.0 MPH in 2008 while “falling” once again to 90.6 in 2009. His changeup hovered around 81 MPH over the last three seasons. His slider has decreased from a 2007 high of 84.9 MPH to a 2009 low of 82.2 MPH. The numbers have dropped, but they have not dropped at an alarming rate. When considering that he knew that he had bone chips and that it was only a matter of time until it had to be taken care of before the beginning of the 2009 season, the slight dip in velocity was to be expected.

Even if Santana is losing velocity (which, of course, is a natural), his arsenal allows him to continue his dominance. With an outstanding changeup, Santana can compensate for a loss of fastball velocity by decreasing his changeup speed. As one can see, his changeup was approximately 10 miles per hour slower than his fastball over the last three seasons. Santana is a technician on the mound and will adjust if needed.  It would be a different story if Santana used his fastball exclusively to get outs or was too dependent on strikeouts. Instead, he is a pitcher who uses a complete arsenal while changing speeds and locations too.

The other “loss of stuff” argument is the decrease of strikeouts since Santana arrived in Flushing. In his four full seasons as a starter for the Minnesota Twins, Santana averaged 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. With the Mets, he has averaged 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. It is significant, but it could be a sign of a more economical, wiser Santana. Consider that Santana averaged a swing and miss on pitches in the strike zone about 17.5 percent of the time during his last three seasons in Minnesota. With the Mets, he elicited swings and misses (on pitches in the strike zone) 17.5 percent of the time in 2008 and 16.2 percent in 2009. He is still missing bats; he still has the ability to strike hitters out. Perhaps, he pitched a bit more because of his elbow rather than pile up strikeouts and pitch counts. A pitcher doesn’t miss that many bats with poor stuff.

Aging pitchers are supposed to lose velocity as they get older, but to make the conclusion that Santana has lost the ability to be an elite pitcher is foolish. His stuff is still elite. He is a pitcher who compensated for injury last season (and perhaps the season before) and was still able to be one of the best in the game. Entering camp fully healthy (with no indication otherwise), there is no reason to believe that Santana won’t be in line for his third Cy Young Award.

Worst Case Last Season

2009 was the worst season on a number of levels for the Mets. They lost their entire offensive core to injury at one point in the season. None of their pitching questions came up with any viable answers. In the medical staff’s one proper move of 2009, Santana was shut down in order to protect their investment and to allow a full rehabilitation for the 2010 season. Like the team, 2009 was the worst season of Johan Santana’s starting pitcher career. In 25 starts, he posted a record of 13-9 with a 3.13 ERA. In 166.2 innings, he allowed 156 hits, 46 walks, 146 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 1.212. His ERA+ of 131 along with his ERA, WHIP, hits allowed per nine innings (8.4), walks, and strikeouts per nine innings were the worst of his career.

Take that in: 2009 was the worst season of his career.

Yet, his ERA was 15^th best in Baseball, while his WHIP ranked 19^th. In his worst season, Santana was clearly one of the best, despite injury. His season actually looks worse because of the June 14^th drubbing he took at the hands of the Yankees (3 innings, 9 hits, 9 runs) that raised his ERA nearly a run. That game certainly counts and it shouldn’t be dismissed, but it was more of an anomaly that an indication of his season. The Mets enter 2010 knowing that even at his worst, Santana is still worth every cent of his contract.

True Hope

The New York Mets have been the laughingstock of the winter. It is easy to point out all that they have done wrong from the medical side, to failing to add a pitcher, to signing Mike Jacobs, and the whole Carlos Beltran ordeal. They do have holes to fill; there cannot be any thought otherwise. But, there is one thing that the Mets and their fans can hold onto as the one legitimate hope for 2010. That hope is 20 percent.

In 20 percent of their games, the New York Mets will have the better pitcher on the mound. That includes matchups with Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens, Carlos Zambrano, or any other pitcher in the game. The 2009 team lost approximately eight starts from Santana. Most of is 25 starts were made with discomfort. However, if Santana had made those eight starts, the Mets would’ve gained approximately five wins, bringing their total to 75. It can also be assumed that the bullpen wouldn’t have been as taxed which may have won the Mets some games too. Suddenly, that disaster of a season is closer to a .500 season. If the Mets had managed 80 or 81 victories, they would’ve been applauded for being gritty and withstanding all of the injuries. The season could be blamed on the losses of Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, John Maine, and Carlos Beltran, and the inconsistencies of Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez. But, the disaster truly began the day Santana stopped taking his turn in the rotation.

The Mets can sell everyone on the health of Reyes and the return to form of David Wright. But, their true sell is knowing that their ace is beginning the season healthy and is likely to continue to make at least 33 starts a season. The returning offense definitely helps and is needed, but 20 percent of games started by Santana is needed even more. There is the true hope for a rebound 2010 for the Mets. That’s not a dream or wishful thinking. That is based on six years of elite level pitching that is backed with two Cy Young Awards, a 118-57 record and a 3.02 ERA as a starter, and a pitcher who has a 3.38 FIP. It also helps that Santana took a liking to Citi Field last season. In 14 starts, he was 8-3 with a 2.43 ERA in 96.1 innings. He allowed 82 hits while striking out 86 batters.

Closing Thoughts

It is easy to forget the excellence of Santana after his 2009 season, which was still pretty good despite injury. With a park that suits his flyball tendencies, an arsenal that translates well with age, and a work ethic that is unparalleled, Johan Santana looks ready to reclaim his title of “Best Pitcher in Baseball”.  In doing so, the quiet assassin gives the 2010 Mets their most realistic reason to hope for success.

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