Mets Looking for Improvement in the Wrong Places

The New York Mets enter 2010 with a variety of unanswered questions that have their fan base in a tizzy over the team’s lack of effective solutions. The Mets did nothing to upgrade first base, believing that Daniel Murphy will become a legitimate major leaguer. They were unable to sign a strong number two starter behind Johan Santana, hoping that Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey will remain healthy and take numerous steps forward in their progression. They chose to plug the hole in centerfield left by Carlos Beltran’s offseason surgery with a battle between Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews, Jr. Up until last week the Mets had invited 24 catchers to spring training (give or take a few) but none with any significant talent or major league experience starting behind the plate. But of all of the choices and non deals made by the Wilpons and Omar Minaya, the one that has the most Mets fans in an uproar is the team’s inability to unload second baseman Luis Castillo for the second consecutive year. Despite many rumored deals, Castillo, his gimpy legs and obscene contract remain in Flushing, and fans are none too pleased about it.

Luis Castillo was dealt to the Mets from the Minnesota Twins midway through the 2007 season for a bag of balls and a Maxim Magazine subscription. Castillo started slowly upon his arrival, but caught fire for the Mets down the stretch. Castillo put up a strong offensive showing as the Mets completed an epic collapse late in the season. Castillo’s September and October 2007 stats:

Castillo’s efficient performance as a Met was rewarded with a four year $25 million contract that was universally looked at as an unwise deal for the team. Castillo was 32 years old when the contract was signed and he was already showing signs of breaking down making the four year deal too risky. This contract was the first nail in Castillo’s coffin, as the fans took out their anger over Minaya’s inability to sign the second baseman to a more appropriate contract on Castillo. The hunger for Castillo’s head intensified when he only played 87 games for the Mets in 2008. The following year, Castillo became the poster boy for the Red Headed Step Child Syndrome faced by many Mets fans when he dropped a pop up that was destined to be the third out against the Yankees in a subway series tilt. Castillo spent the season trying to earn back some (self) respect and put together a fairly impressive year on a team that struggled for offense in their new ballpark. Granted, Castillo did not set the world on fire, but he was one of the few regulars who remained healthy and put up numbers that reflected his career average. Below are Castillo’s 2009 stats with his rank on the Mets in parentheses.

In 2009, Castillo ranked very highly among all National League second basemen. His rankings among his peers are below.

The true argument here is not whether Luis Castillo had a good year in 2009. He did. It is not if he has a reasonable contract. He doesn’t. It is not if Castillo should have received a contract from the Mets at all. He shouldn’t have. The main argument is whether he should still be on the team in 2010. The Mets reportedly tried to move Castillo the entire offseason. Some reports had Minaya valuing Castillo higher than anyone else in baseball, indicating that he was asking for too much in return for an overpaid number two hitter. Rumors were floated that the Mets were in talks to move Castillo for players such as Mike Lowell, Milton Bradley, and Pat Burrell. The 36 year old Lowell, coming off two injury plagued seasons and hip surgery, would have played first base for the Mets. Bradley’s troubles were so severe that he was eventually moved for Carlos Silva and one of the worst contracts in baseball today. Burrell, a notorious Met killer, would have filled a power void in the outfield that was eventually taken by Jason Bay. None were an ideal fit for the Mets, but just the thought of getting rid of Castillo and replacing him with one of the available second basemen was very tempting for the Mets.

The two names bandied about as possible replacements for Castillo were Orlando Hudson and Adam Kennedy. Hudson has been coveted by the Mets brass and fans for two consecutive offseasons, but the team also failed to move Castillo in 2008 and rendering them unable to make a run at Hudson. His attractiveness to many is not just in his performance but in his affordability. Hudson is looked at as an upgrade over Castillo offensively and defensively at a much more reasonable price. As the free agent market bottomed out and Hudson was still available into late February of 2009, there was a noticeable anger among many Mets fans that they were still stuck with Castillo’s bloated contract while an undervalued second baseman was about to be snatched up by someone else.

Kennedy resurrected his career with a strong showing at second base while filling in for the injured Mark Ellis in Oakland. When he returned Kennedy slid over to third base. Kennedy became an everyday player and batted leadoff for the A’s, showing that he was still a viable major league starter. While Hudson and Kennedy are suitable second baseman, they are not enough of an upgrade for the Mets to have moved Castillo just to make room for one of them. Yes, they are more affordable and their pay is more equivalent to their skill level, but the financial savings would not have been enough to justify being tagged with Burrell, Bradley, or Lowell’s contract just for the luxury of losing Castillo. A comparison of the three players’ 2009 stats is below.

The Mets entered 2010 with a number of holes to fill, least of which was second base. But if the Mets were that intent upon unloading Castillo and taking on someone else’s headache, there is only one second baseman that is available who would have been worth the hassle and expense of ridding themselves of Castillo: Felipe Lopez. Further proving the Mets lack of creativity and insight, Lopez has not been linked to the Mets at all this offseason despite their obvious intent to trade Castillo. There is a superb write up of Lopez’s value here, so not to beat a dead horse, below is Lopez’s stats for 2009 and we’ll leave it at that.

With Castillo firmly planted at second base for just over $6 million for at least the near future, the Mets could have turned their attention to filling their other numerous holes with low cost upgrades. But those options (at best) did not come to fruition and (at worst) were not even explored in the first place. For example, many are concerned about Daniel Murphy’s production at first base after he had an unimpressive rookie campaign in 2009. Murphy’s offensive year was overshadowed by the team’s inability to find a position for him and his subsequent defensive ineptitude, but first base is an important offensive position especially considering David Wright’s power outage in 2009 and Carlos Beltran’s injury that will keep him sidelined until at least May. In the last few weeks two first basemen came off of the market and both could have helped the Mets immensely more than Hudson or Kennedy would have. Ryan Garko signed with the Seattle Mariners to platoon with Casey Kotchman. Garko absolutely crushes left-handed pitching and would have complemented left handed hitting Murphy nicely for a base salary of $550,000. Garko’s numbers against lefties in 2009 and in his career:

While giving Murphy a chance to play every day isn’t a bad decision, for a team in such desperate need of offensive upgrade a platoon would have been the best situation for the Mets. Murphy’s stats against left-handed pitching in 2009:

Russell Branyan signed with the Indians a week ago for a $2 million base and a possible $1 million in incentives. Branyan saw interest in his services decline due to concern over a balky back, but he would have been worth the risk for New York because his power numbers would have been a boon to the light hitting Mets lineup.

Another area of concern for the team heading into spring training is a viable number two starter, or at least a semi-successful pitcher who can stay healthy for the length of the season and give relief to a questionable bullpen. The Texas Rangers dealt veteran Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for ineffective reliever Chris Ray. There is little indication that the Mets were even in play for Millwood, but his stats for the Rangers in a hitter’s ballpark would have fit very nicely in spacious Citi Field in 2010. His 2009 stats are below with what his rank would have been had he been with the Mets in 2009 in parentheses.

The Mets have a number of pitchers who wouldn’t rank higher than a third or fourth starter on most teams. While Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey have the talent to pitch behind Johan Santana effectively, they have yet to prove that they can be that good on a consistent basis. Jason Marquis is not an ideal number two starter and would not have satisfied the fans’ desire for a frontline pitcher, but he would have eased the burden on a bullpen that is likely to become very taxed as the season progresses. His 2009 stats are below with what his rank would have been had he been with the Mets in 2009 in parentheses.

Lastly, the Mets should be given credit for finally bringing in a catcher with major league experience and some offensive talent in Rod Barajas. The team was prepared to go to battle with a variety of journeymen and rookies at a position that was not very productive for them in 2009. While Barajas is no world beater, he is a significant upgrade over Omir Santos, Chris Coste, and Henry Blanco.

Despite frequent and vociferous calls for a change at second base, the upgrade from Castillo to the second basemen the Mets were considering is minimal at best. The Mets already have one of the highest payrolls in baseball so it is understandable that they would want to find ways to save money and find better value at each position. But by shopping Castillo they were looking in the wrong place. The Mets had ample opportunity to find efficient and productive replacements with reasonable contracts to supplement their lineup and increase output in weaker positions on the team.

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