Either Chamberlain or Hughes Should Be Ticketed to Scranton

It seems like every spring the Yankees are plagued with the same question: what do they do with Joba Chamberlain? In reality, the Yankees have handled Chamberlain no different than the Blue Jays handled their 22-year-old rookie Ricky Romero or how the Dodgers handled their 21-year-old southpaw, Clayton Kershaw. All teams, even the Tigers with 20-year-old Rick Porcello in the midst of a pennant race, will protect their biggest asset. Young, organizational starting pitching is the most precious resource in Major League Baseball. The development of such talent is what fuels dynasties; it is what allows small market teams such as the Rays and Twins to be contenders despite a budget that can’t compete with their large market brethren. Brian Cashman and the Yankees have been criticized for their “Joba Rules” simply because of the mere fact that they are the Yankees. Again, all teams have the same rules; the spotlight is just on the Yankees.

This spring there is a new debate at Yankees’ camp as the defending champions already have four established starters in CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Javier Vazquez. Chamberlain either wins the spring battle with Phil Hughes for the fifth starter position or he will find himself without a starting job. It has been widely assumed that the loser of the battle will go back to the bullpen and be the “eighth inning guy” to setup the legendary Mariano Rivera. That assumption is based strictly on the fact that both Hughes and Chamberlain were quite successful as relievers. Chamberlain’s 19 game rookie performance in 2007 gave fans a picture of a fist pumping, gas throwing football player who was cocky enough and electric enough to be a superstar reliever. He reminded many of Goose Gossage, a Hall of Fame closer. Hughes was a key cog to the 2009 World Champions as he started seven games early in the season (1-1, 5.40 ERA) and finished the season with 41 elite level relief appearances (5-1, 1.40 ERA). But, those relief performances are precisely the problem. Most only see the fact that the two pitchers, both entering their age 24 seasons, performed well out of the bullpen. Most see one of them as the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera in the closer role. But, most are missing one key point. Both could be above average starters, or at the very least, league average starters. Neither has received a chance (without restrictions) to prove or disprove their ability as a starter.  Both deserve that chance. The Yankees would benefit from both being allowed to start in 2010, even if it means a weakened bullpen for the start of the season.

Big Picture

The Yankees’ 2009 World Series title is the instrument that can allow Brian Cashman and company to not only see the big picture, but to work towards a goal of having homegrown talent fill more of the roster rather than sign more free agents to big contracts. Brian Cashman, speaking at a gathering of fans over the winter stated this desire, “We want to be the Twins, only with a bigger budget.”

In order to achieve that goal, Cashman and Manager Joe Girardi will have a difficult decision. The idea of allowing Phil Hughes to work as a starter this spring is correct. The organization views him as a starter despite is tremendous performance out of the bullpen. Joba Chamberlain is still viewed as a starter even though many pundits described his post-season demeanor (he worked exclusively out of the bullpen for the post season as the Yankees used a three man rotation) as electric. Why? Cashman knows that in order to sustain the organization from within, starting pitching is far too precious. Each right-hander represents the chance at controllable, cost effective, above average pitching for the next few years. That cannot be thrown away because of some good work in the bullpen. That good work in the bullpen is the product of one thing. Starting pitchers will always be good relievers. Starters have a better repertoire of pitches and by their very nature are much more stable than relievers with limited resources and even worse consistency. Chamberlain and Hughes are above average relievers because they have the stuff to be good starters.

In order to keep resources at the proper levels, the Yankees have just one choice. The “loser” of the fifth starter battle must be sent down to triple-A Scranton to work as a starter. It may seem drastic to send down one of the better pitchers on the roster, but if either one works exclusively as a reliever this season, the Yankees have just wasted a resource and essentially made the decision that a 24 year old will only impact 80 innings rather than 200 innings. The loser of the battle will surely be disappointed, but in the long run of his career, the move will be for the best.

The reason for this move is threefold. First, the Yankees have an older pitching staff, as Sabathia is the youngest member at 29 years old. Burnett is 33 years old while Pettitte and Vazquez are 38 and 34 years old. The odds of all four pitchers making all of their starts this season are long. Sabathia and Burnett never pitched deep into October and early November before. There will be an effect. Pettitte battled some problems last season. Older pitchers tend to battle more. Vazquez has been the picture of durability over his 12-year career, but when will all of those innings start to take a toll? With an older staff the Yankees will likely need their sixth starter. If the Yankees listed the organization’s top six starters, both Hughes and Chamberlain would be in the top six. Why would a smart team take its sixth best pitcher and throw him in the bullpen when the rotation is comprised of veterans and are coming off of a 2009 season where they all pitched a heavy workload? Yes, the Yankees have some minor league talent that could step up, but none are as polished and experienced as Hughes or Chamberlain. If the Yankees are to repeat in 2010, they will need their best starters on the mound.

Secondly, with the veteran pitching staff, 2011 could be the year that both are needed in the rotation from the beginning. Pettitte has flirted with retirement for the past few seasons. Will the Yankees bring Javier Vazquez, an impending free agent, back? Will AJ Burnett continue to build off of his 2009 success? Sending Hughes or Chamberlain to the bullpen only damages 2011, as there will have to be a strict innings limit. If both were to be starters this season, that innings limit wouldn’t exist in 2011. Innings restrictions are a drain to an entire staff. Having a pitcher with that type of program for the second time in three years does overuse the bullpen. While the Yankees can afford to pay for Josh Beckett or any other free agent pitcher, their rotation may have cost efficient choices that may one day reach Beckett’s performance level.

Lastly, and perhaps most important, both of displayed glimpses of potential. Phil Hughes has only started 28 games in the Major Leagues, spread over the past three years. He’s only 8-9 with a 5.22 ERA. In 141.1 innings, he’s allowed 144 hits, 59 walks, and 112 strikeouts. But, in 62 Minor League starts, he is 31-8 with a 2.37 ERA. In 330 innings, he allowed 225 hits, 80 walks, and 367 strikeouts. Those numbers paint the picture of a potential top of the rotation type starter. 28 starts are far too little to cast judgment given Hughes’ minor league success. Will he realize his potential? Nobody knows for sure, but he deserves the chance to find out, even if it means spending time in Scranton.

Unlike Hughes, Chamberlain completed a Major League season as a starting pitcher. In all, Chamberlain finished with a 9-6 record with a 4.75 ERA in 31 starts. He pitched 157.1 innings, allowed 167 hits, 76 walks, and 133 strikeouts. Chamberlain receives criticism because of his restrictions. However, when looking at his season compared to other young pitchers, it wasn’t all that much difference in terms of restrictions and performance. It seems that, once again, playing in New York generates perceptions that aren’t always true.

American League Under 24 Pitchers, 30+ Starts

The argument isn’t that Chamberlain is better than any of the other rookies. The argument is that he had the same type of season. He struggled with control; he gave up more hits than innings pitched; he was the typical first year starter navigating his way through the Major Leagues. If anything, the Yankees can take some of the blame for how Chamberlain’s season ended up. During the first four months of the season, Chamberlain had an ERA over 4.00 just once (May, 4.84). It is easily forgotten that Chamberlain was 7-2 with a 3.59 ERA through July. It was in August that the Yankees began to curtail his innings, first trying to skip his turn and then only allowing him to pitch two innings or so at a time. The results were not good as Chamberlain posted ERA’s of 8.22 and 6.85 in August and September.  If Chamberlain had been the 23-year-old starter for the Twins, Blue Jays, or any organization outside of New York, his 2009 season would’ve been deemed a success. The Yankees had the right idea to limit his innings, but their application of that plan did hurt the results.  His early results warrant the chance to start a complete season without limitations. His early results indicate an above average pitcher at the Major League level, something his competition (Hughes) still has to prove.

Bullpen Help Not Needed…Yet

The main argument for putting either Chamberlain or Hughes in the bullpen is that the Yankees supposedly need an eighth inning pitcher. While having a good bullpen is important, it does not override the development of two potentially talented pitchers. Practically speaking, the Yankees already have a deep bullpen with someone already capable of being the bridge to Mariano Rivera. David Robertson, entering his age 25 season, has a track record of success as a late inning reliever. Last season, Robertson appeared in 45 games, gaining the trust of Joe Girardi with each passing appearance. Robertson allowed 36 hits in 43.2 innings, posting a 3.30 ERA, a 1.351 WHIP, a 130 ERA+, and 13.0 strikeouts per nine innings average. He added 5.1 scoreless innings of relief during the postseason. In his three Minor League seasons, Robertson appeared in 82 games and posted a 1.30 ERA and a 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings average. In other words, his Major League performance matches his Minor League performance. It was not a random season of success by a mediocre reliever.

Additionally, the bullpen is fortified with arms that can be used in a variety of ways. Damaso Marte’s postseason performance proved that when healthy, he is a top setup man. Alfred Aceves can be used in long relief and as a setup man. Chan Ho Park will be given a chance to setup as well. He will test if his success in the bullpen for the Phillies was merely an aberration or a new reality. Chad Gaudin can also be effective in the bullpen in multiple roles. There simply isn’t a pressing need for either Hughes or Chamberlain to start the season in the bullpen.

Closing Thoughts

It could be possible that the Yankees will need Hughes or Chamberlain in the bullpen this season. But, they can afford to wait. If the loser of the fifth starter competitions goes to Scranton to start, he can pitch 100 innings on the farm and then be get called up to serve as a reliever to finish out the season. That way, the Yankees can have it both ways—they can have their top prospects conditioned properly and still get bullpen help, if needed, at the season’s most important time.

Sending one of their top pitchers to the Minor Leagues would certainly be difficult, but it is something that must be done if the Yankees want to optimize their resources. Starting pitching is difficult to find and they seem to have it with Chamberlain and Hughes. They are simply too young and have shown too much promise to be relegated to a relief role. By doing the right thing in 2010, the Yankees can setup their future rotation for season’s to come. A smart organization cherishes starting pitching; it does not waste it in the bullpen.

As for the winner of the competition, it would behoove the Yankees for Chamberlain to take hold of the job as he can pitch this season with zero limitations (although they will try to keep him under 190 innings). Hughes can then build up his innings at triple-A, unless he is needed to start because of injury. If the Yankees need bullpen help later in the season, Hughes can be inserted and still have built up enough innings to be a full-time starter next season. If Hughes wins the job out of spring training, he will be restricted just as Chamberlain was last season. If Chamberlain were to start in triple-A, he can be used as a starter later in the season with Hughes transitioning to the bullpen to stay under his innings restriction. In both scenarios, both young pitchers will need to be starters for the majority of the season, even if it means going to Scranton with his 2009 World Series ring in the bag.

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