Chicago’s 2010 Hopes Rest on Peavy

Of all teams, the Chicago White Sox had one of the most perplexing off-seasons. As is always the case with General Manager Ken Williams, the White Sox were active on the trade front and the free agent front. Keeping with tradition, Williams’ acquisitions were both interesting and perplexing as no other General Manager makes his types of moves and has success. But, adding Mark Teahen, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and Omar Vizquel to an offense that ranked 19^th in Baseball in runs scored, 20^th in on base percentage, and 18^th in slugging percentage doesn’t seem like an upgrade, even if it is Wiliams making the moves. Instead, Williams will rely on his top four starters and his bullpen to carry his team into contention in a winnable American League Central Division. He will also hope that his midseason moves of 2009 will pay dividends in 2010. Williams took Alex Rios off of the Blue Jays’ hands (and payroll); he added hard throwing reliever Tony Pena. Most significantly, he traded a group of his prospects for former Cy Young Award winner, Jake Peavy. In a sense, Williams’ offseason began last year at the trade deadline. Although there was quite a bit of player turnover, the White Sox enter 2010 with perhaps even more questions than they did in 2009.

Mediocrity Repeated

To call the 2009 White Sox offense mediocre may be an overstatement as it finished at the bottom of the American League in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage (actually 13^th, 10^th, and 11^th respectively). The White Sox did have two offensive talents. They could hit homeruns and steal bases, finishing sixth in the American League in both categories. But, that same power can’t be counted on for 2010. First, they lost the power of Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye. Yes, Thome and Dye are veterans clearly on the downside of their respective careers, but they provided much of the White Sox power as the two veterans combined for 50 homeruns and 155 RBI last season. Of the regulars, Thome led the White Sox with a .372 on base percentage while Dye’s .340 OBP was fourth best. Both won’t repeat that success in 2009, but the White Sox have neither replaced nor upgraded their spots in the lineup one bit.

Entering the season, the White Sox have a few givens. Paul Konerko, even on the downswing, is a consistent hitter. Since turning 30 years old, he has posted a .274/.358/.495 batting line with an average of 29 homeruns and 88 RBI. He isn’t the type of hitter to anchor a lineup, but he can be relied upon for good power and run production. Catcher AJ Pierzynski isn’t a star, but he will hit 10-15 homeruns and slug over .400. Other than those two, the White Sox will be relying on the continued development of Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham and rebound seasons from Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios. Williams is also betting that Juan Pierre will key the offensive lineup at the leadoff position and Mark Teahen can provide league average production at third base. Most of these questions and hopes don’t project to have good answers.

Ramirez did show some improvement from his rookie year. He increased his on base percentage, the product of taking 30 more walks than his rookie year. He swung at less pitches out of the strike zone as well as making more contact. But, he didn’t hit for as much power and can still be classified as a free swinger. Considering he adjusted to life as a full-time shortstop and was able to produce positive results in terms of range, his season was quite successful. How high is his ceiling? Unless he has a true breakout season, one should expect a 2010 season similar to 2009. He’ll hit .290/.330/.430 and will contribute 15 homeruns. Luckily, he won’t have to hit at the top of the order this season. Beckham, entering his age 23 season, was fast tracked to the Major Leagues after playing just 59 games on three Minor League levels. Arriving in June, he claimed the starting third base job and went on to hit .270/.347/.460 with 14 homeruns and 63 RBI in 378 at bats. It is reasonable to expect him to get better as he is a high ceiling talent. The White Sox will hand him the starting second base job and can reasonably expect a .280/.360/.475 season with 20+ homeruns. He represents the one player that the White Sox can realistically expect to produce better than he did in 2009. The lone negative to Beckham entering the year is that he is entering the season at a new position after moving from shortstop to third base and now to second base. There will be an adjustment period as there are quite a few nuances at second base that often get overlooked.

The rest of the lineup is a bunch of questions. Some of those questions could have positive answers. Alex Rios could rediscover his 2007 stroke. Perhaps Juan Pierre can post another OBP over .331 like he did in 2009 in part-time duty (it was the first season he topped .331 since 2004). Maybe Mark Teahen produces like he did in 2006 and 2007 and getting paroled out of Kansas City can be a rebirth. Maybe Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay can be a productive DH platoon. It certainly seems like too many questions. It seems like the White Sox are hoping for production that their players may not (or no longer) be capable of. More than a few teams are entering the season with similar lineup questions. The Mets are a prime example. The difference is that the Mets have players—David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez—who have produced at an elite level recently. They have shown that capability. It is reasonable to expect those players to return to their former production levels. None of the White Sox’s hopes rest in a player who has compiled elite level numbers or compiled those numbers in recent years. Ken Williams has a knack of making odd moves that work out so this may be the case. But, on paper, the White Sox offense looks to be the worst amongst the Central Division contenders. Instead, the White Sox will enter the season dependent on a solid group of starters and another season of above average work out of the bullpen.

Best Rotation in the Division?

Last season, the White Sox rotation led all American League rotations with 970 innings pitched. With the trio of Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd pacing the way, the White Sox rotation, which lacked a fourth and fifth starter of note, was still able to finish second in the American League with a 4.20 rotation ERA. While the rotation didn’t strike out many hitters, they compiled the fifth best groundball to flyball ratio in the League. This year, Williams’ most significant offseason move gives the White Sox a top four that can match up with most teams around the game. Williams is putting all of his hopes on the health of Jake Peavy. Unlike the offensive hopes, this hope is based more on sound judgment. When healthy, Peavy is one of the best pitchers in the game. The 29 year old will enter the season fully healthy, the first time he can say that since Spring Training of 2007. He also doesn’t have to worry about the World Baseball Classic this year, allowing him to have a full spring. With Peavy anchoring the staff, each other member is in a better suited slot in the rotation. Mark Buehrle was never the prototypical ace and wouldn’t matchup favorable with a Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, or Johan Santana.  Gavin Floyd and John Danks, 27 and 25 years old respectively, are just hitting their respective primes after two consecutive seasons of better than league average pitching. Only the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays can claim to have a better rotation. Even those claims can be challenged with the realistic expectations of Peavy and Danks.

Many will forget just how good Jake Peavy has been (and still is). Since 2004, Peavy is 68-44 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.138 WHIP in 968.2 innings. Some will point to the fact that he spent most of his time pitching in the pitcher’s haven Petco Park, but his secondary numbers show he can pitch anywhere. During that span, he struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings, walked just 2.7 per nine innings, and compiled an ERA+ of 133. His ERA will likely rise because of the move to the American League and his new home stadium, but Peavy gives the White Sox a shutdown pitcher who is one of the few true aces in Baseball. When healthy, Peavy is one of the best. His addition has been ignored this offseason because it happened last July, but the White Sox will get 30 starts by one of the more dominating pitchers in the sport. It is the biggest upgrade that any of the American League Central teams have made for 2010.

It feels like Mark Buehrle has been around forever. Yet, he is only 31 years old and entering his 11^th season. The veteran southpaw is not a hard thrower, but continues to make 30 starts every season (nine years in a row). Those 30 starts are always better than league average and always result in at least 10 wins. He gives up a ton of hits (9.4 per nine innings) and doesn’t strikeout many batters. Yet, he always wins. This season doesn’t have to be the leader of the staff, a role he was seemingly miscast. As a second or third starter, Buehrle is a quality option even if he regresses a bit. Because he never did strikeout so many hitters, there is less worry about a possible drastic regression. He likely produces yet another 200 inning 12 win season with a 3.75 ERA.

John Danks has been everything the White Sox could’ve hoped for since acquiring him before the 2007 season. In his first three seasons at the Major League level, the southpaw has been a consistent starter. During the last two seasons, he has won 12 and 13 games respectively and has posted ERA’s of 3.32 and 3.77. Although he doesn’t strikeout many hitters, the 25 year old has managed to decrease his hits per nine innings allowed in each of his three seasons. At age 25, Danks is entering his prime. He is coming off of a season where he allowed 28 homeruns and a career-high 73 walks, while striking out fewer hitters. Danks’ season is pivotal to not only the White Sox’s success but to his career as well. He must show improvement in order to be a quality option as a number two or three starter. While last season was a small step backwards for him, there is still an awful lot to like about Danks. It is especially comforting for White Sox fans when they compare Danks to the other number three starters in the American League Central. The White Sox do have an advantage.

They hope to further exploit their pitching advantage with their fourth starter, Gavin Floyd. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2008, Floyd has won 28 games, while posting virtually identical statistics during his two seasons as a White Sox starter. Thus far, scouts are positive about Floyd’s progress this spring. He enters 2010 as somewhat of a question, but, again, relative to his Central Division competition he is a superior option. If he develops, he becomes an even bigger advantage.

Overall, the White Sox enter the season with the best top four in the Central Division and with the ability to matchup with most teams in the league. Their fifth starter spot, currently projected to be held by either Freddy Garcia or 23-year-old Dan Hudson, is like most teams—a work in progress. The pitching staff will have to pitch to expectations as the offense doesn’t seem as if it will be able to support it as well as in the past. Last season, the trio of Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd carried the rotation so much that it still was, statistically, one of the best in the American League. That was with the likes of Bartolo Colon, Jose Contreras, and Carlos Torres filling the fourth and fifth spot in the rotation. With Peavy set to replace that group and the other returners set to slide down a rotation spot, much more can be expected out of the rotation. Last season, the rotation compiled a 57-61 record with the aforementioned 4.20 ERA. Peavy automatically improves those numbers as well as the rotation strikeout totals. Without much of a chance of regression, the top four starters look to be a playoff caliber rotation. With a bullpen that projects to be slightly better than league average, the White Sox have the pitching staff to win the American League Central.

Closing Thoughts

The White Sox are a difficult team to project. If the Royals made the same offseason moves, the team would take much in the way of negative criticism. But, Ken Williams has built up enough good will to receive the benefit of the doubt. His teams always seem to overachieve. He has a way of finding scrapheap talent and building a contender. White Sox fans will have to hope he is right again. It certainly doesn’t look good on paper. The offense is without an identity this season as it isn’t a homerun team and it certainly isn’t a speed team. Manager Ozzie Guillen will have to create offensive opportunities for what looks to be a sluggish, boring, and faceless offense. If he can, the White Sox have the pitching to hold onto those leads. If he can’t, it is going to be a long season in Chicago.

Realistically, the White Sox can win as few as 75 games or win 85 games depending on the circumstances. If Williams is right about his new players rebounding to their previous performance, the White Sox have a team ready to compete. If he’s wrong, the White Sox will be competing with the Royals for last place in the division. Williams took many chances this offseason, but he does have that incredible track record of being correct. The solace for White Sox fans should be that they have a very good pitching staff, a Manager who will push the offense to its limits, and a General Manager who, if his team is in the pennant race, won’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a deal midseason.

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