Fantasy Baseball: Players to Love, Players to Leave

Every year you draft that one player who you think will be the key to winning your league. You sit at your draft and you wait. And wait. And wait. You don’t want to overreach, but you know that if you are right about this guy, you just got a ticket to the championship. Finally, you decide to bring him up. Last year it was probably Cameron Maybin, the Florida Marlins’ rookie outfielder. Once you bring up the name, some owners give you that disgusted, “Damn, he was my next pick” or the “Good pick” response. Then, there’s always that one owner who makes fun of every pick every other team makes. You feel good about yourself and your draft because you got your guy at a good value slot. But then, the season starts and Maybin is in the Minor Leagues and you are stuck sifting through the Emilio Bonifacio’s of the world.

That scenario happens every year in everybody’s draft. Sometimes you get lucky like when you drafted Shin-Soo Choo last year and everyone in your league stared at you when you were excited to get him so late in the draft. And, sometimes you get the 2009 Cameron Maybin. Either scenario proves the same point. At the heart of any fantasy league draft, good preparation can only take you so far. At some point luck becomes a factor, especially in the middle of the draft. Owners of the 2008 version of Michael Young were probably scorned while the 2009 bounce back Young likely got your team in the money. The important aspect here is to do your homework, minimize your risks, and hope for some good luck.

However, there is more to it that just luck. A good owner looks at a bunch of factors when preparing for the draft. Remember, the first couple of rounds are easy; drafting Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez isn’t rocket science. Drafting in the last couple of rounds isn’t too difficult as the options are generally limited and you end up plugging holes. It’s the middle of the draft where things get too complicated. Do you draft Nick Markakis or Shin-Soo Choo? The answer is Choo (in case you were wondering). There are certain factors to look at when deciding the middle of your draft. When looking at prospective pitchers, you have to take into account the division/league he pitches in. A middle round pitcher is far more valuable if he is isn’t in the American League East (obviously that doesn’t apply to the upper echelon). One should look at the pitcher’s team defense. The high level defensive teams—the Mariners, Red Sox, Rangers, and Reds—give their bottom of the rotation starters a better chance of success. Hitters in Colorado are always welcome; hitters not named Adrian Gonzalez in San Diego are not. The fact is all of this “little” stuff matters if you want to really win your league title.

Taking that into consideration, below is a list of players you should love on draft day and players you should stay far, and I mean far, away.

Players to Love in All Leagues

Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians

If you didn’t pay attention to the two references made above, we’ll list Choo here. He gets ignored for two reasons: he plays for the Cleveland Indians and he hasn’t truly broken out yet. 2010 could be his year as he played a full season as the Tribe’s most consistent hitter. After raking in the second half of 2008, Choo grabbed hold of a full-time job in 2009 and didn’t disappoint. He hit .300/.394/.489 with 20 homeruns, 86 RBI, and 21 stolen bases. With a better lineup around him (a healthy Grady Sizemore and Russell Branyan) and a full season under his belt, expect a .300/.390/.480 season with 25 homeruns, 100 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. Nick Markakis and JD Drew get more love, but Choo provides equal production much later in the draft.

Kurt Suzuki, Oakland A’s

Once you get past Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Victor Martinez, most catchers have questions. Suzuki is still undervalued and is entering his age 27 season. Unless you play in a league that counts on base percentage, Suzuki will provide 15 homeruns, 80 RBI, and close to 10 stolen bases. When one considers Jorge Posada’s age, Suzuki should be drafted much higher than the Yankees’ veteran. Yet, he gets largely ignored. A productive catcher towards the end of the draft is always welcome.

Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals

Butler may be the best story in Kansas City this year. Entering his age 24 season, Butler can be expected to hit .300/.360/.475 with 20 homeruns and 90 RBI. He isn’t an upper echelon first baseman yet, but he is a solid addition in the middle rounds of a draft. After you get through Pujols, Teixeira, Pena, Howard, Fielder, and Cabrera, first basemen become more or less the same. Butler could provide the same type of production as Kevin Youkilis, Joey Votto, and Justin Morneau while being taken quite a few rounds later.

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

He is an ace and yet everyone thinks of him as a number three pitcher. The Red Sox may placate Josh Beckett this year, but Lester can anchor your fantasy rotation. A possible Cy Young Award and 20 wins await the southpaw. In most drafts, you can get him in the late second or early third round while stocking other positions.

Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves

Normally I say avoid rookies, but Heyward really looks like the next Albert Pujols. You have to read your owners to know when to snag him, but he looks like the rare rookie would could be a top 20 fantasy player this year.

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds

Bruce was a bust in 2009, but he is young and has tremendous power. He won’t hit .223 and he is nowhere close to becoming the next Rob Deer. Expect a .260/.340/.525 season with 30-40 homeruns this season. He’s got that kind of power potential in the right ballpark.

Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies

As a 22 year old, Gonzalez disappointed in Oakland during his rookie year. Following a trade to Colorado, Gonzalez made good on his promise in Colorado. In 89 games, the right-handed hitting outfielder hit .284/.353/.525 with 13 homeruns, 29 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. In a full season, one can expect a .280, 20 homerun, 70 RBI, and 20 stolen base season. Remember, when in doubt, take the hitter from Colorado.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers

Gallardo is the next big-time ace. He made it through the 2009 season healthy and now with more support on the pitching staff, a new pitching coach, and entering his age 24 season, better days are coming. Expect Rick Peterson to get Gallardo to cut his walk rate (4.6 BB/9) while increasing an impressive strikeout ratio (9.9 K/9). He’ll put up equal or better statistics than pitchers drafted in the second or third rounds.

Matt Capps, Washington Nationals

Capps was hurt last season and pitched in tough luck for most of the season (.370 BABIP). Now healthy and pitching in Washington, Capps is a solid closer option who should yield 20-25 saves. Because of his 5.80 ERA and 1.66 WHIP of 2009, he will likely be ignored. Health makes him an average closer and a better bet than most second tier closers.

Brett Anderson, Oakland A’s

Anderson won 11 games and posted a 4.06 ERA. Of course, as most know by now, he posted a 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings after the All-Star break. The southpaw has ace written all over him and may take that next step in 2010. Even if he doesn’t “breakout”, he will produce solid numbers as a second or third pitcher. With better offensive support, Anderson can win 12 to 15 games with a 3.70 ERA and provide good strikeout numbers.

Stay Away…Far Away

Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

Posada is still one of the better offensive catchers in the game, but he is severely overvalued now at 38 years old. He’s going to play in less games and will start to see some of his power diminish. Last season may have been the last 20+ homerun year for the switch-hitting catcher. He’s still a fine late round pick, but he is definitely not a top three catcher any longer.

Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles

One big rule with fantasy baseball is to avoid players with injuries to the back. Roberts and the Orioles are downplaying the herniated disk, but fantasy owners shouldn’t. Part of Roberts’ appeal is his power/speed combination. Back injuries reduce power and will likely stop him from running too much in order to save the pounding on the back. He’s a fantasy favorite who is really worth just a late round flier.

Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers

Even before his injury Martin was on the avoid list. As a fantasy player, Martin has regressed in each of the past two seasons. He continually goes higher in drafts than he should. Don’t make that mistake. There is better value (and better production) later on with the likes of Miguel Olivo, the Molina Brothers, and Kurt Suzuki available later on.

David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners

The 29 year old reliever put together a career year for the Mariners in 2009. With 38 saves and a 2.52 ERA, Aardsma as one of the best waiver wire pickups of last season (kudos if you actually drafted him). If you expect the same thing in 2010, you are foolish. He walks too many, had a .270 BABIP, and is a flyball pitcher. That doesn’t add up to an encore performance now, does it?

Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers

Hamilton was a heck of a story a couple of years ago, but it seems as if he may never be fully healthy again. At 29 years old, his prime is limited. He’s a good late round pick, but his health is too scary for early rounds.

Garrett Atkins, Baltimore Orioles

A move out of Colorado won’t help his sagging offensive production. He’s a fantasy fill-in guy at best.

Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

Kinsler is one of the best second basemen in the game, but he has only played more than 140 games once. That was last season as Kinsler belted 31 homeruns and added 31 stolen bases. His numbers will make him an early round pick, but I’d rather wait a few rounds and take Robinson Cano or take Chase Utley in the first round.

Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

The Days of 30/30 are long over. He may show power flashes, but there are far better outfielders available. Unless he gets an inning at second base to qualify in some leagues, go in a much different direction. In fact, stay away from all Cubs’ outfielders.

Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals

I know, I know, the AL Cy Young Award winner is a great pitcher and one of the filthiest in the game. But, there are a couple of things here. First, he plays for the Royals. Secondly, he plays for the Royals. The Royals look to be worse than last season, which limits Greinke’s 20 win potential. He’ll still post great numbers, but he will be drafted in the first or second round when pitchers who will post similar numbers and win more games (see Lester, Jon) will still be available. He’s great, but he’s not worth an early round pick. He won’t last as long as he should so don’t panic and grab him in the first couple of rounds.

Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays

He’s never finding that 2006 form ever again. The Blue Jays are stuck with him, but you don’t have to be.

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