Yes, The Red Sox Can Still Hit

As has been well documented, the Boston Red Sox’s offseason theme was run prevention. General Manager Theo Epstein made it a priority to help the deepest pitching staff in Baseball by bringing in defensive specialists Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre to man centerfield and third base. He also brought in Marco Scutaro to upgrade the shortstop position. To add even more depth, Epstein signed the premier free agent pitcher on the market, John Lackey, to be the number three starter on the staff. The prevailing thought is that the Red Sox will compete with the Yankees and Rays with an improved pitching staff, an improved defense, and with less offense than in previous seasons. Undoubtedly, the Red Sox have improved the team defense. They have made the pitching staff better with the addition of Lackey to the rotation and with a full season of flamethrower Daniel Bard in the bullpen. It cannot be denied or debated. However, the notion that the Red Sox will have a worse or subpar offense is simply false. Despite the claims, the Boston Red Sox will still be on the best offensive clubs in Baseball.

Quick Recap of 2009

The 2009 Red Sox scored 872 runs, third most in the Majors. The Sox offense clubbed 224 homeruns (4^th most), 335 doubles (2^nd), walked 659 times (3^rd), and hit .270/.352/.454 (ranking 4^th, 2^nd, and 2^nd). They also added 126 stolen bases, which was good for fifth in Baseball. In short, the offense was one of the most complete attacks in the game. It was paced by Jason Bay’s .267/.384/.537 36 homeruns and 119 RBI season. Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and JD Drew, who perhaps was the Red Sox’s most underrated hitter, carried the offense throughout the year with stellar offensive seasons. Mike Lowell struggled with the after effects of his hip surgery, but still gave adequate production when he played. David Ortiz got off to a horrific start (1 homerun and 18 RBI through May), but rebounded with a .258/.350/.516 16 homerun, 52 RBI second half. While the Red Sox struggled to get production from their various shortstops, the offense was bolstered with the midseason addition of catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez.

The Newbies

After the season, the Red Sox allowed Jason Bay to sign with the New York Mets and tried to trade Mike Lowell to Texas. Lowell is still on the team and could be an asset in a backup role, but he is still a candidate to be traded if he can prove healthy. Losing Bay means that the Red Sox lost their best run producer from a season ago. Epstein chose to replace Bay with the veteran centerfielder Mike Cameron and by signing the elite defensive third baseman Adrian Beltre. Marco Scutaro, who parlayed a career year in a three-year deal, will be the starting shortstop for a team whose shortstops struggled to produce in 2009. Epstein’s first move of the offseason wasn’t one that garnered headlines, but it could prove significant. Jeremy Hermida, formerly of the Marlins, will serve as a fourth outfielder for a team with a 37 year old centerfielder and an injury prone right fielder. The versatile Bill Hall will fill a utility role as well. Hall came from Seattle in the Casey Kotchman trade.

Losing Bay’s production does hurt the offense. Bay was one of the most productive outfielders in the game last season. Replacing him with a centerfielder who is on the downside of his career seems to hurt the offense. Mike Cameron is still one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game, but he is not a liability at the plate. Since 2006, Cameron has hit .251/.340/.459 with an average of 23 homeruns, 75 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. In fact, Cameron has been remarkably consistent over the past four seasons, never having an extreme drop or spike in any offensive statistic besides stolen bases. Last year, he stole a career low seven bases. His running days may be over, but he can still hit for power. When one examines that two of the past four seasons were spent in San Diego, one of the worst offensive environments, one can see Cameron can still hit. The Red Sox do dramatically add to their strikeout total, but Cameron’s offensive production and elite defense more than outweigh whatever negative results from his strikeouts. He doesn’t replace Bay’s offense, but he doesn’t have to. He will prevent some runs on defense and will be a solid addition to a lineup in a good offensive environment. Some projection systems project Cameron to have a terrible season, but his increase in walks, decrease in strikeouts, and his consistent production point to another solid season.

A potentially significant upgrade could be Adrian Beltre. Beltre, 31 years old, struggled in 2009 for the Mariners through a myriad of injuries. For the three previous seasons, Beltre was a consistent hitter in addition to being the best defensive third baseman in the game. From 2006 through 2008, Beltre averaged .270/.325/.468 with 25 homeruns, 88 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. Now healthy, Beltre looks ready to resume that consistency. Beltre will never get on base at even an average pace, but his power and defense more than offset that flaw. His career OBP is .325, which is below average, but not enough to outweigh his positives. Additionally, as a pull hitter, he will enjoy Fenway Park as opposed to Safeco Park. If healthy, a .270/.325/.450 season with 25 homeruns can be expected. As Mike Lowell continues to battle injury effects and age, the 2010 version of Beltre is an upgrade. Because he is signed to a deal that will allow him to reenter the free agent market next winter, expect a healthy, motivated Beltre to look to improve his value.

What cannot be disputed is the offensive upgrade at shortstop. Marco Scutaro is not a superstar. His 2009 season was a career season at 33 years old. He posted career highs in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, homeruns, doubles, RBI, stolen bases, and walks. It is unrealistic to expect a repeat of that season at 34. But, even if he falls short and regresses back towards his career averages of .265/.337/.384 with an average of 7 homeruns and 44 RBI, he is an upgrade over the Red Sox’s 2009 shortstop production of .234/.296/.357. Likely, Scutaro produces somewhere in between his career season and his career norms.

Jeremy Hermida is a left-handed batter who is entering his age 26 season. The former number one pick of the Florida Marlins is starting over as a bench player for the Red Sox. While being left-handed limits platoon options with the lefthanders Ellsbury and Drew as the established starters, Hermida still figures to get plenty of time. Drew has an annual injury and Cameron may need more rest as he ages. Since 2007, Hermida has hit .267/.345/.432 with an average of 16 homeruns and 57 RBI. His splits indicate a platoon player, but Hermida can be quite useful considering that the Red Sox have struggled to find a fourth outfielder since Coco Crisp. Hermida would be an average regular, but he is a quality backup capable of starting for chunks of time.

Returning Excellence

If one is worried about the Red Sox lineup, those worries are put to ease with a look at the offensive core of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez, and JD Drew. Of the core, Drew is the oldest at 34 years old. Martinez and Youkilis are still in their respective primes (although getting towards the end), while Pedroia and Ellsbury are both 26 years old and just entering their primes. Nobody in that core group can expect much in terms of regression in 2010.

For JD Drew, the question is always going to be about health. When healthy, Drew is one of the most underrated hitters in the game. For the second consecutive season, Drew has posted an OPS over .900 while posting an OPS+ of 137 and 133 in the past two seasons. Since 2006, Drew has hit at least .279 or higher, posted an OBP of .390 or higher, and slugged .498 or higher in three of four seasons. Injuries aside, there is no reason to believe that Drew cannot replicate that type of production in 2010.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia are both players who are trending upwards. Ellsbury increased his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage by close to 20 points in 2009, his second full season. He also ran more efficiently, stealing 70 bases and being caught just 12 times. With developing power, Ellsbury could surpass Carl Crawford as the division’s most exciting and talented left fielder. Pedroia didn’t win an MVP in 2009, but he did post a similar season with more walks and less strikeouts. At the very least, his production has reached its limits. At best, he becomes a .320/.380/.475 hitter. Both players represent the top of the Red Sox lineup for the foreseeable future. Both are young, improving, and will provide plenty of RBI opportunities for the aging, but still talented, heart of the order.

That heart of the order is diverse, aging, but productive. Kevin Youkilis is entering his age 31 season, his fifth full season in the Majors. With his trademark patience, Youkilis has developed 25 to 30 homerun power. He has increased his on base percentage in every season of his career while continuing to hit 35+ doubles, and developing the aforementioned power. He may have reached his ceiling, but the Red Sox can count on another season of .290/.400/.500 with 25 homeruns. Victor Martinez is also entering his age 31 season and the walk year of his contract. The switch-hitting catcher will take over full-time duty from Jason Varitek in 2010 and will provide the Red Sox with offensive production that few teams get from their catchers. Since 2004, Martinez is a .300/.373/.473 hitter who has averaged 22 homeruns and 95 RBI. A similar season can be expected. When compared to Jason Varitek’s performance over the past two seasons, .215/.315/.374, Martinez is giving the Red Sox a significant offensive boost.

The X-Factor

David Ortiz looked as if he was done as a middle of the order threat. But, he gave signs in the second half that his first two months could’ve been merely a slump. The million-dollar question for the Red Sox is which David Ortiz will show up. If the two months were merely a slump, one can expect a .260/.360/.520 season with 30 homeruns. If those two months were a sign of an aging player about to lose his ability to turn on a fastball, the Red Sox will need a new designated hitter. For his part, Ortiz has come to camp in great shape, having lost a significant amount of his trademark girth. The core of the Red Sox lineup doesn’t have many questions. Most are expected to at least replicate 2009. But, Ortiz is the one player who can either make the Red Sox a lethal offense or a lineup in need of one big bat. The rest of the Red Sox lineup has good power hitters, but it lacks the one explosive power threat. The Yankees have Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. The Rays have Carlos Pena. Ortiz has to be the Red Sox’s threat.

Closing Thoughts

Surely, the Red Sox have improved their defense and pitching. It can and should be the headline of their offseason. But, in improving those two areas, Theo Epstein hasn’t ignored the offense. Victor Martinez, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and Marco Scutaro are more than adequate replacements for Jason Varitek, Jason Bay, Mike Lowell (who still might have a bench role), and anyone who manned shortstop in 2009. As a whole, the Red Sox lineup looks more powerful, more consistent, and more diverse through the entire order. There aren’t any weak spots whereas last season a team could pitch around Varitek and the shortstop at any point. This season, Cameron and Scutaro are the likely 8^th and 9^th place hitters. Both are tougher outs. The Red Sox did add many strikeouts, but they also added more power to the lineup.

The scary part for their competitors is this: the Red Sox improved the defense and pitching, but will likely score as many runs as they did in 2009. They may even score more given their deeper lineup and deeper bench. Yes, the Red Sox can still hit.

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