Fantasy Baseball: Patience Drafting Steals and Saves

The two categories that give fantasy baseball owners the most draft day trouble are likely steals and saves. Because of the supposed scarcity of elite base stealers and closers, many owners get caught drafting these often singularly talented players far too early or, if it is an auction draft (the best kind), paying far too much money. It is the fear of losing an entire category (or two) on draft day. That fear, however, is simply a myth for two reasons. First, 46 players stole 20 or more bases last season. 99 players stole 10 or more bases. Stolen bases are certainly not scarce in today’s game. Eight players with 25 or more stolen bases had less than 400 at bats. That fact leads into the second reason why it is unwise to draft for steals early. Stolen bases can be found late in the draft and, even better, on the waiver wire. Saves are a bit trickier as you don’t want to be the owner stuck with the 2008 version of Joe Borowski (I was), but, again, there are a number of options to get enough saves.

Wait to Steal

Last season, Jacoby Ellsbury led the Major Leagues with 70 stolen bases. Michael Bourn and Carl Crawford trailed the Boston outfielder with 61 and 60 swipes respectively. After the top three, there was a big drop off to BJ Upton’s, Nyjer Morgan’s, and Chone Figgins’ 42 stolen bases. After Rajai Davis’ 41 stolen bases (in 125 games), the next highest total was 34 by Matt Kemp. The big drop off also begins the big cluster of stolen bases as 39 players stolen between 20 and 34 bases. That information leads to one conclusion: it is foolish to draft stolen bases, even the stolen base leaders, early. Yet, in most fantasy draft rankings, Ellsbury is rated as a top-10 player and a top-5 outfielder. Ellsbury is quite talented and will be a solid player for year’s to come, but for fantasy purposes he is, at present, vastly overrated.

Unless Ellsbury develops 20 homerun potential, he has no business being drafted ahead of players like Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Kevin Youkilis, Justin Upton, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto, and a myriad of other power hitters. The only stolen base leader who should be drafted ahead of most of the aforementioned hitters is the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp. Kemp, unlike Ellsbury, Bourn, and Crawford, has legitimate 30 homerun potential. Last season, Kemp hit .297 with 26 homeruns and 101 RBI. He finished 8^th in Baseball with his 34 stolen bases. None of the seven players ahead of him drove in more than 60 runs and only one player (Crawford) hit at least 15 homeruns. Only one of the top seven stolen base leaders scored more runs than Kemp’s 97. Kemp is an all-around player, not a mostly one-dimensional player like the top stolen base leaders. Ellsbury and Crawford will yield some homeruns and RBI as well as hit for a solid average, but neither is more valuable than a Ryan Braun who will hit 40+ homeruns and steal 20 bases.

Instead of overreaching or overpaying for stolen bases, owners should be looking to draft for the three harder (or four depending on your league) areas—batting average, homeruns, and RBI (runs scored too). Stockpiling power does a couple of things. First, it ensures points in the three of the four categories. The elite power hitters will always drive in runs and score runs in addition to helping the homerun category. With the exception of Carlos Pena, none of the top 10 homerun hitters batted below .260. Power hitters are better all-around fantasy players.

The second benefit of stockpiling power is that the stockpile will allow for trades to fill deficiencies in the second half of the season. One of the easiest categories to make up points during the season is stolen bases. Trading one of your lesser power hitters for a stolen base threat won’t hurt you in the power department.

As alluded to earlier, stolen bases can be acquired on the waiver wire as the season moves along, elite power cannot. Only the deepest of leagues would’ve seen Nyjer Morgan or Rajai Davis drafted. Scott Podsednik didn’t even play until he was traded to the White Sox. Brett Gardner, Everth Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen, Juan Pierre and Nelson Cruz weren’t even assured jobs at the beginning of the season. It doesn’t make sense to draft specifically for stolen bases to at least the middle of the draft (and it would be ideal to wait until the end). Simply, there are more than enough players who can help keep you competitive in the category. Remember, you don’t have to win every category of a roto-scoring league to win the title. With good values available late in the draft (Juan Pierre, Julio Borbon, Brett Gardner, Denard Span, and Dexter Fowler), you can let another team draft Ellsbury or the singularly talented Michael Bourn early while you draft better players early who can help in more categories and still get enough steals late in the draft. While you won’t get a stolen base leader (unless you play in a wise league that leaves them for later in the draft), you will get plenty of players who can steal bases, but contribute in other areas. Of all the players with 20+ stolen bases, 11 of them hit 25 or more homeruns. Those are the players to target.

Closer Caution

There is usually a part of a draft when one owner will pick Mariano Rivera and a few picks later someone else will take Jonathan Papelbon. Panic and riot will soon ensue. Don’t get caught up in the vortex of panic as owners make mid-round picks on closers. Similar to stolen bases, saves can be found late in drafts and from multiple sources. Looking at the 2009 saves leaderboard, one sees an even bigger clumping of saves than steals. Brian Fuentes led the Major Leagues with 48 saves (which should tell you something about finding saves as Fuentes had a poor season). 28 different pitchers saved 20 or more games. 37 pitchers saved at least 10 games; while 124 pitchers notched at least one save. Mariano Rivera is the best closer in the game, and quite possibly ever, but that doesn’t mean he is a high round fantasy pick. Rivera’s tremendous 2009 season would’ve helped any team as he saved 44 games with a 1.76 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9. He’s the epitome of an elite closer. The Royals’ Joakim Soria finished 16^th in Baseball with 30 saves. He compiled a 2.21 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9. The American League Rookie of the Year, Andrew Bailey, finished with a 1.84 ERA, a 0.876 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 to go along with his 26 saves. The difference between their three seasons is miniscule, yet in most leagues Soria could be had many rounds later and Bailey wasn’t even a thought on draft day.

Most closers are essentially the same for fantasy purposes. They generally compile solid ERA’s, WHIP’s, and give plenty strikeouts. The difference from the number one closer to the number 16 or 17 closer in a fantasy baseball league is negligible at best. Like stolen bases, saves can often be found on the waiver wire. Kudos to the owner who drafted David Aardsma or Ryan Franklin to fill their closer role. If you knew Mike McDougal was going to save 20 games, it’s time to get your resume into every Major League front office. Likely, all three were waiver wire additions by the thoughtful owner. For this season, as long as you don’t get stuck with any of the Toronto Blue Jays’ closer candidates, you have a chance to get enough saves out of a later round pick up. Rafael Soriano, the Tampa Rays closer, could probably be had much later in the draft than his divisional rivals Rivera and Papelbon. Yet, if Soriano can stay healthy, he plays on a good team and should get plenty of saves chances. There is value later in the draft; build up a good starting rotation or draft that power earlier. Those players have more of an impact. If you draft a good rotation, a mediocre closer with high save totals but poor secondary numbers won’t have a great impact on your ERA or WHIP. Having a poor rotation with Papelbon as your closer is a ticket to finishing at the bottom of most pitching categories. Having a good starting rotation with Kerry Wood or Brian Fuentes as your closer is a ticket to winning your league. That is where fantasy baseball becomes fantasy baseball. Closers are important in reality. For fantasy purposes, if they rack up the saves, they have done their job.

If one takes the late draft closer strategy, he must have a contingency. The good owner knows the landscape of closers. Every season, there are names that ascend to the closer role to get the job after beginning the season as a setup man. This season’s name could be the Cleveland Indians’ Chris Perez if/when the Indians dump Kerry Wood. Brandon League could be the Mariners’ closer if/when David Aardsma falters (a great bet). Francisco Liriano could be the Twins’ closer at some point, even if he opens the season in the rotation. Dan Wheeler and JP Howell are two Tampa Rays’ pitchers to watch if Soriano has trouble staying healthy. Stay up to date on shaky closer situations such as the Marlins, Astros, Cubs, and possibly Cardinals (Franklin = Aardsma). Keep track of their primary setup men to see who is gaining the trust of his Manager. Even if they don’t get the closer job, these setup men are great sources of strikeouts and, oftentimes, wins.

Closing Thoughts

It is never wise to draft a player too early that really only helps one category. Surely stolen bases and saves are important categories, but they are the ones where you can find a player and makeup ground rather quickly. Players like Julio Borbon come up towards the end of the season every year and provide a quick jump in the standings. Hitters who can club 30 homeruns and drive in 100 runs or 15 game winning pitchers never become available. Have patience because players who can steal bases or save games are always available. Stockpile your power and starters and you have a better chance of finishing in the money.

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