Sabathia’s Slow Start is a Result of the Ring

One of the few seemingly legitimate concerns in New York is CC Sabathia. Last season, Sabathia was the reason for the Yankees 27^th World Series title. His dominance on the mound and his ability to chew up innings was the reason why Joe Girardi could use his bullpen so much when regulating Joba Chamberlain’s innings, when using a bunch of fifth starters, and when surviving a poor start from either AJ Burnett or Andy Pettitte. The southpaw gave the Yankees 230 innings during the regular season, winning 19 games and finishing fourth in the American League Cy Young Award voting. Most importantly, he started five times during the postseason, pitching 36.1 innings while allowing 28 hits, 7 runs, and 32 strikeouts. His first season in the Bronx validated Brian Cashman on a number of levels. It validated the decision to keep Phil Hughes instead of trading for Johan Santana and it validated investing $161 million in Sabathia.

But, 2010 hasn’t been the same for the Yankees’ ace. On the season, he is 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 13 starts. In 85.1 innings, he has allowed 77 hits, 27 walks, and 66 strikeouts. If one takes into account that he is 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in 29.2 innings against the lowly Balitmore Orioles, it becomes clearer that Sabathia has struggled thus far in 2010. But, the problem isn’t readily apparent when looking at Sabathia or dissecting his statistics. He is healthy; his mechanics are largely the same. He is averaging 7.28 strikeouts per nine innings, similar to his 7.71 K/9 last season. He is walking 2.85 batters per nine as opposed to 2.62 last season. Batters are hitting .275 against him this season as opposed to .284 last season. He has a 1.43 GB/FB ratio this season, which is slightly better than last season. His fastball has averaged 93.1 MPH, which is his career average.

While those statistics are quite similar, he is not missing as many bats. Last season, he achieved swings and misses on pitches thrown in the strike zone 15 percent of the time. This season, his rate of swings and misses on strikes is down to 12.7 percent. His 1.27 HR/9 inning ratio is the highest of his career. One could simply chalk it up to a slow start, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. CC Sabathia is different in 2010. He is still the best pitcher the Yankees have and one of the best in the game. With similar velocity, similar stuff, and similar mechanics, why isn’t Sabathia dominating like he was last season? The answer is that he is paying the price for his first World Series ring. Sabathia isn’t hurt; he is merely struggling with the fatigue related to pitching into November for the first time in his career. He isn’t the first to deal with this post-World Series season issue.

The Next Year

Winning a World Series is the goal; pitchers are the ones who pay for achieving that goal. There is a discernable difference between most pitchers’ World Series season and their follow up season. Many pitchers struggle the following season to repeat their World Series season success. Over the past decade, a team’s ace has struggled the following season.

The Aces Following the World Series Season

In every case except the Florida Marlins version of Josh Beckett, the season following a World Series appearance saw some regression. In 10 of the 11 cases, the pitchers gave up more hits and more homeruns. While walks and strikeouts varied, each pitcher had a worse ERA following the World Series. For Sabathia, he may be in the middle of a recovery season. He is giving up slightly more hits, homeruns, and walks, while striking out slightly less batters. He looks like he is on his way to becoming number 12 on the above chart.

Searching for the Cause

The causes of the dropoff aren’t really known. While many of the 11 pitchers listed went on the disabled list the following season, none experienced a serious drop in velocity. Yet, they came up a bit short with their statistics and simply looked different to the naked eye. The total number of innings doesn’t look to be a problem as most pitchers have been able to make it through the entire season. Additionally, in the case of Sabathia, he only pitched a dozen more innings than he did in 2008. Innings don’t seem to be the issue, or at least a major contributor. It more likely has to do with the time period and how it relates to the pitcher’s need for recovery. The likely cause for all of this has to do with the term periodization.

The American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) defines periodization as “the cycling of high intensity activity and a period of rest/recovery.” Periodization is an important aspect of a healthy pitcher. In short, pitchers need a period of rest so their body can recover from the damage incurred as a result of pitching. This period of rest can include conditioning drills, but players should not be throwing a baseball during this time.  For most pitchers, periodization begins to occur during the first week of October as only the select few move onto the playoffs. The deeper a team goes into the playoffs, the less time a pitcher has to recover before he has to ramp it up all over again.

Team Reactions

As each season passes, teams are becoming more aware of the aftereffects a World Series has on a pitcher. During Spring Training of 2009, the Rays and Phillies both stated that they were easing their pitchers in, giving them less of a workload during spring training. Both teams still had their aces (and staffs in general) perform worse during the season. The Rays failed to make the playoffs while the Phillies bolstered their rotation with Cliff Lee in order to return to the World Series. This Spring Training, the Yankees crafted a slower moving plan for their staff. The Phillies brought in Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels discussed the lessons he learned from the 2009 season.

Teams are generally reacting by having the pitchers start their offseason programs later, an effort to let the recovery process take place. For now, this may be the best teams can do considering the problems Major League Baseball has as an industry when it comes to keeping pitchers healthy. Perhaps one day, all teams will send their pitchers for a biomechanical analysis before and after seasons to gain insight on the impact of throwing thousands of pitches at 90 MPH has on the human body.

Closing Thoughts

The goal of every team is to win the World Series. The Yankees have their infamous motto that anything less is considered a failure. The byproduct of that title is the impact it has on a pitcher, especially the top of the rotation guys. Pitching later in the season has an impact on their bodies. It is evident that for most pitchers, the World Series (and the run to get there) takes a toll the next season. The radar gun helps point to this as most pitchers aren’t losing significant speed (if at all). Most are losing location (the reason for the higher walks and homeruns allowed). This loss of location has everything to do with fatigue, as the pitcher’s body is incapable of repeating the precise delivery each time. The results are a few more walks and a few more hittable balls.

If one has watched CC Sabathia’s starts, it is evident that Sabathia is battling through something. His location isn’t precise all of the time. He is prone to some walks that he didn’t issue last season. He is leaving the occasional homerun ball down the middle. It is quite easy to say that there is something wrong. In reality, there isn’t anything wrong. He’s healthy, throwing hard, and still able to battle through games. He simply is fatigued as his body is still trying to catch up. It is evident as his breaking pitches don’t have the same bite and his fastball doesn’t have the same movement. He is throwing his slider much less this season (15.7 percent compared to 19.9 percent). Even his changeup isn’t moving as much as it did last season.

Because Sabathia is an elite level pitcher, he can still succeed with compromised stuff. 2010 will just be more of a battle for him. If the Yankees make their way back to the World Series, he will be tested. Perhaps his body adjusts to the new rest period; maybe the fatigue leads to physical complications. The only certainty is that something is stopping CC Sabathia from dominating games like he did last season. He is paying the price for winning a World Series. It is a tradeoff that is unfortunate, but one that is, obviously, necessary. There is nothing wrong with Sabathia. Everyone can stop worrying about him rather than look at numbers. His “slow start” is one that could have been predicted. Expecting the dominant 2009 version of Sabathia is simply unrealistic.

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