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Looking Ahead: The Top 5 2009 Free Agent Pitchers

By Gary Armida 

Before previewing an upcoming season, it is often helpful to look forward at the following off-season’s free agent list. Why? Well, players who are potential free agents are often the big trade targets by the contending teams during the season. The 2008 season should prove to be interesting on the trade front as there are many star players who would have quite an impact if they were traded during the season. Even if they are not traded, these players would stand to land quite a bit of money as most teams did refrain from spending this past off-season. With a potential free agent list that could include the likes of Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, Rafael Furcal, Kenji Johjima, and Rafael Soriano, the 2009 off-season will definitely be one of the most exciting in recent memory. In addition, there are many players who have a contract option that if not exercised could allow them to become a free agent. Players such as Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Ken Griffey, Hank Blalock, Carlos Delgado, and Frank Thomas fall under that category. While all of these players would be exciting additions to teams, there are five pitchers who will command the most attention during the season as well as the 2009 hot stove season.

C.C. Sabathia

The reigning Cy-Young award winner is entering his final year of the two year, 17.75 million dollar extension that he signed in April of 2005. The big lefty couldn’t have picked a better time to become a free agent as contemporary Johan Santana just signed a six year extension with the New York Mets that now gives him a seven year, 151 million dollar deal. Although Santana is a bit better, Sabathia has put together a career that is surprising close to Santana, generally regarded as the best pitcher in baseball. In eight seasons, Sabathia has won 100 games with a career 3.83 ERA and a 1.267 WHIP. Comparatively, Santana, in seven seasons, has won 92 games with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.094 ERA. While Santana is clearly the best pitcher in baseball, Sabathia has established himself in that second tier. Sabathia will be hitting the free agent market at 28 years old and, if the Indians can make it back to the postseason as expected, with some major postseason experience.

The downside to Sabathia is his girth. The 6′7″ lefty is generously listed at 250 pounds. As anyone can see, that “250″ is not exactly reminiscent of a world class athlete. His poor conditioning only played a role in the 2006 season when C.C. had to leave his first start with a pulled stomach muscle (insert joke here). Other than that, Sabathia comes with zero arm issues, a quality record, and the youth that would allow teams to feel safe in investing for the long term.

Sabathia does not seem to be a candidate to be traded during the season as Cleveland should be in contention all season long. The Indians do not have a track record for signing its own players for big money so this seems to be the last season on the reservation for Sabathia. Although the Indians will continue to try and sign Sabathia to an extension, he seems destined to be the premier free agent of the 2009 hot stove season. The “Big Market” teams will all be bidding on his services. He should command a five year deal in the neighborhood of 18-20 million per season. Remember, the Yankees are losing a ton of payroll after this season.

Francisco Rodriguez

Besides C.C. Sabathia, K-Rod will be the most attractive pitcher on the free agent market. Aside from Mariano Rivera, Rodriguez is the best closer in baseball. With a good fastball backed by the best slider in the game, Rodriguez has dominated Major League Baseball since his arrival during the 2002 post-season. Since taking over as the Angel’s closer in 2005, K-Rod has saved 45, 47, and 40 games in his three seasons as the closer. He has amassed 90 strikeouts in each of those three seasons while not throwing more than 74 innings in any of those three seasons. In a word, K-Rod is dominating.

Rodriguez will only be 27 years old when he starts the 2009 season, so a team will be more apt to invest in the long term. Because he was only a set-up man for two seasons before taking over the closer’s role from Troy Percival, his arm has not been taxed like the majority of middle relievers (much like teammate Scot Sheilds). If he is allowed to reach free agency, Rodriguez will gain the richest contract ever to be given to a closer. Even in this current off-season, K-Rod and the Angels are a way apart from a contract as Rodriguez submitted a 12.5 million dollar proposal while the Angels only submitted 10 million.

Odds are that owner Arte Moreno will pay the popular Rodriguez. Rodriguez should net a five year contract making about 18 million dollars per season. If, for some strange reason, the Angels decide to part ways, the K-Rod tour will be in full effect. Teams like the Phillies, the Mets, the Cubs, and the Tigers will all open the vault to land a difference maker like Rodriguez. Historically big spending teams like the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros cannot be counted out either. The only slight negative of Rodriguez becoming a free agent in 2009 is that the Yankees have Mariano Rivera locked up so they will not be involved in the bidding.

Ben Sheets

The soon to be 29 year old will be entering his 8^th year as a starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers. The 6′1″ right hander is finishing up his four year, 38.5 million dollar contract that he signed in 2005. Sheets is undoubtedly talented, but has never put together that one breakout season. In his seven full seasons, Sheets has compiled a 73-74 record with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.209 WHIP. While his peripherals look much like Sabathia’s, Sheets has missed significant time during the last three seasons. He has never won more than 12 games in a season and has only had one season in which he had an ERA under 3.00 (2004 with a 2.70 ERA).

The upside to Sheets is that he does have ace potential. For the first time in his career, the Brewers were a contending team in 2007. Sheets was a big part of the Brewers run, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA during the first half of the season, earning his first all-star selection. Unfortunately, injuries, once again, took their toll on Sheets as he missed much of the second half, making only six starts and compiling a 5.68 ERA. The stuff is there, but the clock is ticking on Sheets fulfilling all of his potential.

If Sheets does have the breakout season in 2008, there is little doubt that he will become a free agent. The Milwaukee Brewers do not have a history of opening up the check books and they may turn their attention to locking up their younger players early (like Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and Ryan Braun). Sheets looks like an A.J. Burnett or Carl Pavano candidate as he does possess the stuff to put together a magical year that will net him a huge, possibly overvalued contract. If he does put together that season, he would be better served staying in the National League and signing with one of the West Coast teams. The San Diego Padres or Los Angeles Dodgers look like a great match for Sheets.

Oliver Perez

In 2007, the 6′3″ 160 pound left hander fulfilled his vast potential in his age 25 season. Most of baseball may have missed the memo that Oliver Perez was one of the top 15 pitchers in all of baseball during 2007. His 15-10, 3.56 ERA, and 1.311 WHIP were a pleasant surprise to a Mets team who took Perez as a throw-in player during a 2006 trade deadline deal with the Pirates. After his tremendous 2004 season, Perez struggled with the Pirates, posting ERA’s of 5.85, and 6.55 in the following two seasons. However, all of baseball knew the potential was there.

The challenge for Perez will be to show that 2007 was not an aberration. If he can prove that, he will get a nice payday in his first go-around in free agency. In order to take the next step, Perez will have to cut down on his walk totals, his hit batsmen, and his homeruns allowed. The one possibility is that Perez gets resigned mid-season by the New York Mets who now boast a rotation of Johan Santana, Perez, John Maine, and Pedro Martinez (also a possible free agent). If Perez has a good first half, the Mets will extend his contract. If he does become a free agent, teams like the Padres, Cardinals, Braves, and White Sox will all come calling. More than any other pitcher on this list, Perez has the most to prove and most to gain during the 2008 season.

Joe Nathan

Since taking over as the Minnesota Twins’ closer in 2004, Joe Nathan has compiled 160 saves. In three of his four seasons as closer, his ERA has been under 2.00 while having a WHIP under 1.000 in three of those four seasons. In short, Joe Nathan has been one of Baseball’s best closers in recent years. The 33 year old right hander is entering the final year of a two year 10 million dollar extension that he signed in 2005. At that price, Nathan has been Baseball’s best bargain.

Since the Minnesota Twins are clearly in payroll shedding mode, the trade of Joe Nathan seems likely during the 2008 season. It could happen during Spring Training, but a trade deadline deal seems more likely. If a team’s closer goes down due to injury, the Minnesota Twins will be calling five minutes later. Even if he is traded during the season, Nathan seems destined for the Free Agent market. Teams like the Tigers, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, and Braves are good fits for the veteran closer. A four year deal in the neighborhood of 10-14 million per season seems reasonable.

Finally an Off-season with Some Excitement

The previous two off-seasons have been littered with borderline players looking to cash in based on the scarcity of players. Gil Meche, A.J. Burnett, and Carlos Silva all received contracts that do not reflect their production. With a legitimate crop of players available, the 2009 off-season rumor mill will be in full bloom. The fact that there are so many difference making pitchers will only add to the excitement. With teams like the Yankees and Mets actually losing significant payroll, these free agents will see many offers.

The impact on the 2008 season is quite simple. If a team is out of contention, the recent trend has been to deal the soon-to-be free agent. With players of this caliber, the 2008 pennant races could be decided on July 31, 2008 when the trading deadline expires.

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