The move was met with heavy scrutiny with the opposition stating that Mejia should continue to develop as a starter and that the bullpen stint would be a waste of time. Again, it is easy to criticize the Mets for many of their decisions; this isn’t one of them. While many felt that the Mets were about to waste an opportunity to develop a future ace, the organization made the proper decision for both their prized prospect and their 2010 team. It is a rare instance where a team, any team for that matter, has gotten it completely correct. It is a decision that may allow the Mets to reap the benefits of Mejia later this season. At worst, Mejia is better prepared for his future.

Interest of the Player

20-year-old pitchers who can throw in the upper 90’s are precious commodities. The Mets have taken the proper precautions with the talented righty. After signing Mejia as a 17-year-old amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, the Mets have slowly developed their potential phenom. As a 17 year old, he pitched 43.2 innings. In 2008, he started 14 games between two single-A levels, pitching 71.2 innings. Last season, he started 19 games, split between high A-ball and double-A, pitching 94.2 innings. The Mets have been very careful with innings increases, pitch counts, and stress. Their development and caution should be lauded, as they are really the only things teams can do until someone decides to use the science being developed to institute a better program. For an organization without a reputation of being careful with arms, Mejia has been brought along quite well.

Following their innings increases, Mejia figures to throw about 125 innings this season. It equates to approximately 20, six-inning starts. Because he threw so well during spring training, Mets Manager Jerry Manuel pushed to include Mejia on the Major League roster. Manuel got his way and had a choice as to how to use his power right-hander. Rather than use him how Johan Santana was used as young pitcher for the Minnesota Twins (more of a long reliever and spot starter), Manuel chose to limit Mejia’s appearances as well as limit his stressful situations. The result was 30 appearances, 27.2 innings with 29 hits, 15 walks, and 17 strikeouts. His excellent 3.25 ERA is somewhat nullified by his 1.590 WHIP. Mejia showed flashes of promise intermixed with reminders that he is a raw 20 year old. On Monday, the Mets announced that Mejia was heading down to double-A to get stretched out as a starter.

Some viewed the announcement as the Mets acknowledgment of a poor spring training decision. That view is patently false. By sending Mejia down at this point, Mejia will have an opportunity to get stretched out over the next month and a half and then work the last couple of months of the season as a starter with zero innings restrictions. With approximately 100 more innings to go this season, Mejia can make 13-15, six inning starts for the rest of the season. The Mets have put Mejia in a great situation. He won’t have to be skipped in the rotation; he won’t have to be yanked out of a start after three innings like the Yankees did with Joba Chamberlain last season. Mejia won’t turn into the side show in an effort to protect his arm. He will be allowed to work as a regular starter for the rest of the season; he will develop a routine that he can take into the 2011 season. The Yankees missed that mark with Joba Chamberlain last season. He was never allowed to have a regular routine, something starting pitchers crave and need in order to sustain success. Mejia has that for the rest of his career, assuming he continues his expected developmental path.

One aspect that is glossed over is the 27.2 innings Jenrry Mejia pitched at the Major League level. As a 20 year old, those innings and that experience are invaluable. They are something he can draw upon as a starter. He learned how to get Major League hitters out; he learned what leads to failure at the Major League level. The Mets can again point across town for an example of the importance of Major League learning. Phil Hughes is in the midst of a breakout season as a member of the Yankees’ rotation, leading the staff in wins. But, Hughes struggled at the beginning of the 2009 season as a starter. He was winless in 2008. Instead of sending Hughes down, the Yankees chose to keep him in the bullpen where he gradually worked his way into the setup role. He learned how to get Major League hitters out. To think his 2010 success doesn’t have anything to do with his 2009 bullpen work is narrow minded. Watching Phil Hughes attack hitters as a starter is quite a difference from his work as a starter over the past two seasons. Mejia now gets that benefit. It will be valuable.

For Jenrry Mejia, his 2010 season has given him the tools for success. He has been allowed to experience the life of a Major Leaguer. He has watched Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey work. He watched Jon Niese break in as a rookie. He faced Major League hitters and experienced the good and bad. Now, he goes back to the Minors with that experience and without limitations for the rest of the season. Once stretched out, he becomes a normal starting pitcher prospect who can simply pitch.

Best Interest of the Ballclub

It is often difficult to balance the interests of both young player and team. The Mets benefit from Mejia’s early development plan. First, he did pitch 27.2 innings; those are innings that another reliever had to pitch. During a 162 game season, any innings a reliever can avoid is valuable. But, more importantly, sending Mejia down now gives the Mets even more options. First, having him stretched out as a starter does improve his trade value if the Mets are going to make a run at one of the aces available on the trade market. Secondly, if Mejia does succeed as a starter this season, the Mets can conceivably call him up in August and have a young, hard throwing pitcher in the rotation with zero restrictions. The Mets can safely use Mejia to help them in a playoff drive if they need him. During a time when most young pitchers are being shut down, Mejia can simply pitch during the last month of the season.

Even if Mejia doesn’t make it back up to the Major Leagues this season, the Mets benefit from his experience. They now have a reference point of his shortcomings as a Major League pitcher. It is often difficult to project a Minor League pitcher; Mejia is now known. It isn’t a question of experience anymore. It’s a matter of talent. He is better prepared to be a starting Major League pitcher, even if he doesn’t make it back this season.

Closing Thoughts

Jenrry Mejia’s time as a Major League reliever was far from a waste of time. It does not hinder his development as a starting pitcher one bit. Even if Mejia was sent down after spring training to work as a starter, he would have to be limited. That limitation would’ve manifested itself in either shortened outings or being shut down before the end of the season. Neither option helps his development, as he wouldn’t learn how to work late in games or how to work over the course of a full season. Now, Mejia has his experience and has the leeway to work as a normal starter. His 27.2 relief innings allow for this. Because of the Mets’ plan, Jenrry Mejia will be better prepared. He may even help them in 2010. Simply, the Mets, thus far, have executed their plan flawlessly. That can’t be said for many teams. They have given him the best chance for a successful career while benefiting the organization.

Fantasy Strategy

Entering the Sweet Spot to Secure Your Fantasy Title

The end of May and beginning of June is when you secure your league championship. You should know where your team strengths are and what weaknesses need to be addressed. At this point, the season’s surprise players have been picked up by you or somebody else in your league. However, right now, owners are getting frustrated with their underperforming players. Many owners sit on their players for the first month or two before being open to major changes. Trade offers should be heating up in your league and you should take a smart but aggressive approach. Target those owners whose teams are in the middle of the pack and carefully select players who have a history of succes,s but are drastically performing below career averages.  These owners will be desperate to get back in to the race and will be concerned with players performing well at the moment. They are basically sick and tired of checking their team on a daily basis and seeing ugly stats.

For this edition of 5 to Buy and 5 to Sell we will focus on players that are performing below their talent levels to buy and players you should be offering in exchange for those players whose production is exceeding expectations.

5 to Buy

Carlos Zambrano, Pitcher Chicago Cubs

What a confusing and unexpected start to the season for Chicago’s highest paid pitcher. Big Z is regarded as the teams’ ace on opening day, then goes to the pen, and now will be stretching his pitch count to return the rotation. Combine that perplexing mess with his 6.75 ERA and you have a pitcher that should be easily obtainable in your league as his perceived value is the lowest in his career. Zambrano has surrendered 41 hits in his 29.1 innings of works, which is not normal for Big Z as he has consistently given up fewer hits than innings pitched for the previous 8 seasons. The big stat to look at for Big Z is the BABIP statistic. The career BABIP for Zambrano is .283 and his 2010 number sits at an extremely elevated .430 BABIP. As this number returns from the upper stratosphere, so will the dominant and fierce competitor known as Big Z.

Chone Figgins, Second Baseman Seattle Mariners

Figgins has been off to the worst start of his 9 year career and currently sits at a .194 average, 0 homeruns, 11 RBI, 9 steals, and 17 runs scored. Over that 9 year career, Figgins’ 162 game average season is a .288 average, 5 homeruns, 58 RBI, 48 steals, and 102 runs scored. Chone is too talented to remain at this level of play and will balance his numbers closer to his career averages. Buy Figgins now!

Carlos Pena, First Baseman Tampa Bay Rays

Pena is another player who is producing well below his talent. His power numbers are still very respectable (7 HR & 26 RBI). I realize he has never been a high average hitter but currently Pena is hitting a putrid .185, which is significantly off from his career .245 batting average. You can expect a homerun tear coming very shortly and benefit from a decent average the rest of the way as Pena raises closer to his career levels.

Carlos Lee, Outfielder Houston Astros

 Lee may be suffering from lack of protection in the limp Astros offense, but a career .289 hitter batting .203 may be cause for concern for whomever owns him in your league. Similar to Pena, Lee has been hitting for power respectably, compiling 5 homeruns and 16 RBI. Look for Lee to approach his average season of 30 homers and 100 RBI.

Aramis Ramirez, Third Baseman Chicago Cubs

Aramis, .167 average, really? Well the good news is that Ramirez has shown signs of life recently, so now is the perfect time to buy. For the past six seasons Ramirez has been the epitome of consistency and there have been no red flags to expect this type of drop off. You can count on Aramis for 30 homeruns, 100 RBI and for his average to rise to .280 by the end of 2010. Buy now and enjoy the spike in production.

5 to Sell

Ricky Romero, Starting Pitcher Toronto Blue Jays

Romero won a rotation spot last spring and got off to a fast start (7-3, 3.00 ERA, 1.264 WHIP in 13 starts before the All-Star break) but struggled with his command and slumped badly in the second half (5.54 ERA, 1.769 WHIP in 16 starts). It’s worth noting that there’s really nothing in his history in the minors to support his success in last season’s first half or this seasons, so that’s a cause for some concern. With a history of control problems, more hits than innings pitched, and just average strikeout numbers look for another poor second half. You may have time to ride out another few starts but after that he is a ticking time bomb.

Marlon Byrd, Outfielder Chicago Cubs

Byrd enjoyed a nice season in Texas last season and has carried that success over in to 2010 by hitting .333, 7 homers, and 25 RBI to start the year. Byrd had a breakout “contract” season in Texas at the age of 31, which seems very tardy for a player to suddenly hit their stride. His OPS totals on the road the past three seasons have not been good (.715, .773 and .740), which leads me to believe that Byrd cashed in by playing in one of the best hitting ballparks last season. A second half crash and burn is coming, sell him now at his peak.

Vernon Wells, Outfielder Toronto Blue Jays

Despite having successful seasons in his career, Wells has been on the decline for the last three years. Wells has not eclipsed the 30 homerun barrier in four years and this year he came out of the gate swinging. Wells has belted 11 dingers to go along with 32 RBI and a .309 average. All of Vernon statistics will decline as the Jays cool off and his trade value will never be higher than it is right now. It will be hard to part with Wells as you remember when you could expect big production, but I believe you can gain more through trade then Wells will contribute throughout the rest of the season.

Corey Hart, Outfielder Milwaukee Brewers

Hart continued his downward spiral from an impressive rookie season by hitting .260/.335/.418 in 2009 with just 11 stolen bases. Fantasy owners were able to live with the subpar batting average in 2008 because of his 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His home-run total dropped to just 12 in 2009 and he missed a month of the season due to an appendectomy. Hart got off to a horrible start this season, but he’s suddenly turned it around in a big way. He now has 4 homers with 7 RBI over a recent three game stretch, and he’s sporting the second-best OPS of his career as a result. However, he has followed that with a 0-7 in the next two games to follow. With some additional outfield help returning from the disabled list soon look for Hart to lose some playing time due to inconsistent production. Sell while you still can.

Jon Garland, Starting Pitcher San Diego Padres

Garland has recorded double digit wins in the previous eight consecutive seasons and he will probably make it a ninth this year. However, I can assure you that it will not come with the 2.38 ERA he is currently sporting. He is pitching in a great ballpark but the bottom line is that he does not miss enough bats. In his 53 innings pitched this year he allowed 45 hits, a startling 27 walks, and only 31 K’s. Look for the wheels to fall off this bus as Garland returns to his 4.36 career ERA. Sell immediately.

Fantasy Forecast

Here are some great Interleague matchups to look forward to this weekend:

Friday

John Lackey (4-2 4.86 ERA)   vs.      Cole Hamels (4-2 4.29)

Lackey and Hamels have endured similar seasons thus far and seem to be slowly finding their form. Look for the Philly offense to jump on Lackey early and for Hamels to keep Boston off balance all game long.

Barry Zito (6-1 2.15 ERA)      vs.      Trevor Cahill (1-2 4.37 ERA)

Since joining the Giants, Zito has faced his former team three times and has not performed well. Zito is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA against the Athletics but we all know that this is a very different Zito then in years past. Look for Zito to shut down his former team and continue his remarkable success this season.

Saturday

Phil Hughes (5-0 2.25 ERA)    vs.      Mike Pelfrey (5-1 3.02 ERA)

Hughes labored through his worst outing of the season last Monday, surviving only five innings (his shortest outing since his first start of the season) and surrendered a season high five runs. That’s only one run fewer than he allowed in his first half dozen starts combined. Pelfrey is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA against the Yankees in his career. I would look for a low scoring game early as the Yankees try to be patient, but each time through the order look for them to swing more aggressively early in the count and tack on some decent runs. Hughes gets his sixth win before Pelfrey.

Sunday

Jered Weaver (4-2 3.40 ERA)      vs.      Chris Carpenter (5-1 2.80 ERA)

Carpenter is pitching on regular rest but is coming off an outing in which he threw the most pitches in a game (118) since the 2006 season. It will be intriguing to see how he fares, though he has said repeatedly that he feels stronger than he has in years. After handling Carpenter quite gently last year, the Cardinals seem to be pushing him a little more in 2010. If he responds well on regular rest after 118 pitches, it will be very good news for Carpenter and the team. Look for Carpenter to pick up the win.

C.C. Sabathia (4-2 3.43 ERA)      vs.     Johan Santana (3-2 3.72 ERA)

Perhaps one of the few matchups that makes interleague baseball interesting. Look for this game to be decided by the bullpen as I expect both starters to go at least 7 innings and give up 2 runs or less. A classic pitcher’s duel to enjoy Sunday night.

Pease keep the emails coming with your Fantasy Baseball questions and have it featured and answered in our Fantasy Mail Segment. Get the Edge!

Fantasy Trends

Golden Aces: Baseball Primed to Turn Back the Clock for the Upcoming Decade

 In Baseball, a decade or era is usually defined by either the dominance of offense or the dominance of its equalizer, pitching. Offense is currently on the decline; in the 2000 season, there were 3,005 home runs hit and 12,976 runs scored. The 2009 season saw those numbers fall to 2,482 home runs and 11,481 runs scored. Over the last 10 years the average ERA of Major League pitchers has dropped from 4.77 to 4.32, still a far cry from the 1968 average ERA of 2.98. Many will chalk up the decline in offense to Major League Baseball’s attempts at eradicating performance enhancing drugs. As for the better pitching, perhaps all of those wacky pitching programs, intense training, pitch counts, and innings limits are actually having a positive effect. Baseball looks set to rewind the clock to Baseball’s Golden Age of pitching, the 1960’s, with Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, and C.C. Sabathia playing the roles of Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, and Warren Spahn.

Why is this important to your fantasy team and strategy? Well, winning your fantasy league is all about staying ahead of the trends and realizing where to spend your money or make your picks. Also making trades, knowing some of this information, should affect your strategy, especially in keeper leagues. That is how you get an edge on the rest of your fantasy league mates. Fantasy Baseball, similar to the economy, is based off of supply and demand. If offense is down, the cost goes up; it becomes a hotter commodity. While if the supply of quality pitchers is up, the value goes down. The strategy then should be spending money on powerful offensive threats that you can count on year in and year out to produce (i.e.: Pujols, Teixeira, A-Rod, Howard, etc). In other words take on less risk offensively. As for the pitching, you should be able to obtain a solid pitching rotation through the draft and the free agent wire, so be open to deal the pitching for an offensive powerhouse that consistently performs. In this day and age, a 15 win pitcher is replaceable, whereas, a 40 homerun hitter is not.  

5 to Buy

Casey McGehee, Third Baseman Milwaukee Brewers

Casey McGehee rewarded many fantasy owners, as he was one of the more popular in-season free agent acquisitions last year. This year, strangely enough, many magazines and online publications predicted a step backwards. On draft day he was suddenly a risky pick and was obtained by most teams at a value. McGehee has played in 156 games in his career and his stat totals over that span provide a very accurate sample of what a full season this year can produce: 156 G, 499 AB, .299 BA, 23 HR, 102 RBI, 0 SB, and 78 R. McGehee is batting 5^th on a potent Brewers offense and will meet or exceed those numbers this year.

Tyler Clippard, Relief Pitcher Washington Nationals

Every season there is a relief pitcher that provides fantasy owners with win totals that rival their 3^rd or 4^th starter. In 2005 it was Jesse Crain with 12 Wins, in 2006 Braden Looper had 9 Wins, in 2007 Russ Springer had 8 Wins, in 2008 Jose Arrendondo had 10 Wins, and last year Alfredo Aceves contributed 10 Wins from the Pen. As you can see, it does not indicate that the reliever will have long term major league success, but you do get one magical season. This year Tyler Clippard seems to be taking on that role. Clippard has the confidence from the team and his manager when the game is on the line in the middle innings. Clippard has 7 Wins under his belt already this season and plenty more opportunities to come, Clippard appears to be on his way to double digit wins before the All Star break.

Billy Butler, First Baseman Kansas City Royals

Billy Butler had many expectations heading into the 2008 season only to result in struggling and being demoted to the minors. Butler turned things around in a big way in a 2009 breakout season batting .301 with 21 homeruns and 93 runs batted in to go along with 51 doubles. Whenever a hitter smashes a high amount of doubles in a season, it indicates even more potential for homerun totals. Butler has hit only 3 homeruns this year but has been locked in, hitting for a .331 batting average. The power surge is coming very soon, grab him if you can.

Chris Perez, Relief Pitcher Cleveland Indians

Chris Perez at the age of 24 has electric stuff and has solidified himself as an above average setup man and closer in waiting. With Kerry Wood’s return from the disabled list (How many times has that been typed?) Perez has returned to the setup role. It will only be a matter of time until Woods is either traded or back on the DL. Obtain Chris Perez now because I don’t know if it is just the look, but it seems like Perez could enjoy a Rod Beck like career.

Brennan Boesch, Outfielder Detroit Tigers

 Boesch opened a lot of eyes last season when he led the Eastern League in homeruns (28), extra base hits (61), and total bases (269). Brennan a tall (6-foot-5, 185lb) left handed hitter is described by scouts as having explosive hips and power that will continue to develop as he strengthens his command of the strike zone. Boesch capitalized on what was supposed to be a quick fill in for the injured Carlos Guillen and appears to have played 4^th outfielder Ryan Raburn out of town. During his first 15 games with the Tigers, Boesch has his .368 with 3 homeruns and 16 RBI. Even with Guillen returning from the DL, look for Boesch to continue seeing regular at bats.

5 to Sell

Chad Billingsley, Starting Pitcher Los Angeles Dodgers

Billingsley has had control issues this season with 18 walks in 37 innings and what is even more troubling with his slow start is Chad and pitched against .500 ball clubs or worse. He also seems to be getting lucky on his HR/FB% as his career mark sit at 8.4% and this season he is at 6.4%. It seems like the 2009 version of Billingsley was more realistic than the 2008 version. He has pieced together a couple of quality starts and seems like the perfect time to start shopping him around your league.

Austin Jackson, Outfielder Detroit Tigers

Despite striking out 37 times in 132 at-bats, Jackson continues to stay towards the top of the leader board in the American League in batting average (.371) and hits (49). The 23-year-old rookie is riding a 10-game hit streak and has reached base in 25 consecutive games. With a .511 BABIP and a high strikeout rate, a crash is unavoidable, so don’t be shy about offering Jackson to owners who believe he’ll finish the season among the league leaders in hitting.

Jose Guillen, Designated Hitter Kansas City Royals

 The window is closing fast if you haven’t sold Jose Guillen. With only 1 homerun since April 25^th and watching his average drop to .260, Guillen’s stock is plummeting fast. Guillen is prone to hitting homeruns in bunches so if you did not trade him, wait for that next multi-homerun game, and then his 10 homeruns will look very attractive to a team that is short on power.

John Buck, Catcher Toronto Blue Jays

Buck has always been a decent power options for AL only leagues and this season he is off to a fast start with 8 homeruns.  He also has added 20 RBI to go along with a .270 BA. The bottom line with Buck is he has a career batting average of .235, has never hit more 18 homeruns, goes though prolonged slumps and is very weak defensively. If you can pawn him off to one of those owners that freakishly values position scarcity, add somebody else that will not negatively impact your team.

Mark DeRosa, Outfielder San Francisco Giants

DeRosa said the wrist surgery he had in the offseason was a “total failure,” according to the Giants official site. He said the ligaments were flopping around in his wrist just like they were before the procedure, and he faults the wrist for his struggles at the plate thus far. “I feel like my bottom hand’s underwater. I don’t have much feeling in my bottom two fingers,” DeRosa said. He should return to the Giants’ lineup in a few days, but the long-term prospects aren’t good, given his age, diminishing plate skills (47:121 BB:K in 2009) and another surgery becoming a possibility. DeRosa is a gritty athlete that plays the game the right way; however it is time to cut bait from a fantasy perspective.

Fantasy Mail

Joe from NY asks: Is it time to give up on Javier Vazquez?

Doug Hill’s Edge: Vazquez has been frustrating to own and I know the New York Media is constantly reminding you that Vazquez simply can’t handle the stress of pitching in New York. However all reports out of NY reveal that Vazquez has been putting in a lot of extra work between starts with pitching coach, Dave Eiland. Javy turned in his strongest outing of the season on Wednesday against the Tigers holding Detroit to 2 runs over 7 innings, striking out 7 and walking 2. Look for Vazquez to build on the giant step in the right direction.

Fantasy Forecast

Here are some great matchups to look forward to this weekend:

Friday

Francisco Liriano (4-1 2.36 ERA)   vs.   A.J. Burnett (4-1 3.40)

Liriano and Burnett are both coming off of their worst outings of the season. Look for Liriano to right the ship and give the Yankees problems, as tough lefties sometimes do. The Twins will look to wait out Burnett and hope for some control issues then capitalize on some clutch hitting from the middle of the order.

Livan Hernandez (4-1 1.04 ERA)   vs.   Ubaldo Jimenez (6-1 0.93 ERA)

Look for Jimenez to continue his quest for the Cy Young award and dominate the Nationals. The Rockies will look to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard off of logic defying Hernandez early on and give Livan the worst outing on the season.

Saturday

Adam Wainwright (5-1 2.08 ERA)  vs.   Mike Leake (3-0 3.10 ERA)

Expect a true pitcher’s duel, which is a rarity in Great American Ballpark, as both pitchers have been superb to start the season. The sole difference in this game will be Albert Pujols.

Sunday

 Dan Haren (4-2 4.23 ERA)      vs.       Tim Hudson (3-1 2.64 ERA)

Two very competitive starters take the mound in this one and as the stats indicate, Hudson seems to have the edge in this matchup. While Hudson was not especially sharp in his last outing, when he tied a career high with six walks over six innings. He did earn the win, however, improving his record to 3-1 on the season and lowering his ERA to 2.64. In six career starts against the D-Backs, Hudson has been dominant, going 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA. Hudson has allowed just nine runs, eight earned, on 34 hits in 44 2/3 innings against the D-Backs. Look for Hudson to record season high strike out totals against the free swinging D-Backs who currently lead the Majors in that category.

Please keep the emails coming with your Fantasy Baseball questions and have it featured and answered in our Fantasy Mail Segment. Get the Edge!

Paul Konerko, First Baseman Chicago White Sox:

While Konerko is no stranger to being a fantasy stud, though he has not hit over 30 homeruns since 2007, he is off to a torrid start. This year he is pacing the majors with 12 homeruns and seems to be a lock to hit over 30 round trippers. Konerko is a consistent hitter but you can expect a small slump this month as the month of May seems to give Konerko some problems, as the following chart indicates.

Paul Konerko Numbers by Month

While every season is different, this is a large enough sample size to expect some drop off this month. If Konerko manages to continue his attack on the American League this month, a year of 40 plus bombs (circa 2005) is well within reach.

5 To Buy

Jake Peavy, Starting Pitcher Chicago White Sox

Jake Peavy is buy low candidate because his perceived value is way down, after an ugly start to the year and the injuries he has previously incurred. However, Peavy, recently had a strong outing in which he displayed increased velocity and his arm slot was back in the ¾ position allowing maximum movement on his pitches. After his most recent outing, Peavy commented that the arm slot/release point has been the focus for correcting his control and increasing his movement and he felt like more like the pitcher that won 19 games with a 2.54 ERA in 2007. At the age of 29, a powerful offense to support him and more confidence, look for Peavy to put together great numbers the rest of the way.

Kelly Johnson, Second Baseman Arizona Diamondbacks

Johnson always had plenty of upside since he has a strong eye at the plate, good power for a middle infielder and some speed. Now entering his prime, age 28 season, he seems to be putting it all together. In his first 93 at bats he has compiled 28 hits, 17 being extra base hits, including 8 doubles and 9 homeruns to go along with a .301 average. Look for Johnson to continue his success in the exciting Diamondbacks lineup. In the typical 5×5 format (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB) his numbers could easily finish at .290/25/75/90/10.

Doug Fister, Starting Pitcher Seattle Mariners

An extreme control, pitch to contact type of pitcher, Fister filled in admirably when the Seattle rotation needed assistance late in 2009. Utilizing his economic approach in a pitcher friendly ballpark, combined with some great defense behind him, Fister has accrued tremendous results thus far. Fister has pitched 35 innings, allowing 23 hits, walking only 5 batters, fanning 16, and has yet to allow a homerun. This has given Fister a 2-1 record with a 1.29 ERA and a .800 WHIP. His approach combined with the ballpark and defense leads me to believe his success will not be fleeting.

Josh Beckett, Starting Pitcher Boston Red Sox

Josh Beckett had an awful April to start the 2010 season. His finished the month with 7.22 ERA. Poor quality starts are always concerning, but in fantasy baseball, an owner must look deeper. Wondering what his ERA was April last season? Beckett finished April of 2009 with a 7.22 ERA, before going on to finish the season 17-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He will be fine as he already had one great outing in May. See if you can get him at a bargain from a frustrated owner and enjoy the wins and strong outings as he returns his bloated numbers to normalcy.

Jason Bay, Outfielder New York Mets

Bay is a tough fantasy player to own as he is susceptive to prolonged slumps. The bottom line is that Bay is too strong of a hitter, having launched 30+ homeruns in 5 of the last 7 seasons. Patience is crucial when owning streaky players that get into deep slumps at the plate, especially when there is an overall consistency displayed in season totals throughout the career. First play up how bad he is doing, next talk about how bad the ballpark is for hitters, lastly trade for him and enjoy the hot streak that is eminent.

5 To Sell

Zack Grienke, Starting Pitcher Kansas City Royals

Before all you Grienke owners send me hate mail and death threats, hear me out. Zack Grienke is one of the best pitchers in baseball and any team would be happy to have him on their staff. His Cy Young Award last year was the pinnacle to an incredible season. Here comes the reality check; the perceived value on Grienke will never be higher, and with the Royals not putting a contending team on the field anytime soon, the time to trade Grienke is now. He has pitched well this year and has no wins to show for it. It is possible to get the power hitter or speed guy you need and a starting pitcher that will provide more wins. Don’t fall in love with the hardware, sell Grienke to fill your fantasy teams’ weaknesses and get your own hardware.

Livan Hernandez, Starting Pitcher Washington Nationals

Livan has not completed a season with a sub 4 ERA (3.98) since 2005, so it seems highly unlikely that his 0.99 dominance will continue. He does not possess the stuff to dominate hitters like he is doing right now; he does not miss enough bats. There is no upside here, so cash in and hope somebody in your league is impressed. Do not wait for a bad start or two; trade him as soon as possible. In fact, open a new window on your computer right now, log into your league and offer a deal to everybody in your league, then come back and finish this article.

Rickie Weeks, Second Baseman Milwaukee Brewers

Weeks is ranked high in every fantasy magazine year after year but continues to disappoint owners with a variety of injuries and slumps. He started the season on fire but has already shown signs of slowing down, dropping his average to .250 on season. Until Weeks can live up to the 20/20 hype that is forecasted every year, he is just not worth the risk.

Alex Gonzalez, Shortstop Toronto Blue Jays

Every fantasy owner hopes to catch lightning in a bottle and get that player having a career year. After all that is how most leagues are won, it’s never the production of Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez that wins the league; it’s the surprises, the career years. Well I’m sorry to burst your Alex Gonzalez bubble, but he is not that guy. He will not hit 30 homeruns; I believe that he won’t even see 20 homeruns. The problem with Alex Gonzalez is his low batting average, no speed, and the propensity to find his way to the disabled list.  I know it is difficult to let go of your lightning in a bottle, but I can assure you that Gonzalez is a just passing storm.

Chipper Jones, Third Baseman Atlanta Braves

It pains me to have Chipper on the sell list as I have enjoyed watching his remarkable career. Jones has unfortunately aged to the point where his reaction time at the plate is affecting his contact and pitch recognition. Additionally you have to worry about the injury factor as minor DL stints are becoming commonplace for Chipper. This is the difficult part of being a fantasy owner where you must make the decision between having players you like and having players that help you win.  It appears that the competitive and respectable torch that Chipper Jones has carried for the last 16 seasons has officially been passed to Jason Heyward in Atlanta.

Fantasy Mailbox

Ed from NY asks: I was offered a deal for my ace King Felix Hernandez. I am pretty strong in pitching overall and could use stolen bases. The offer was Carl Crawford and Mark Buehrle for the Hernandez. It is an AL only keeper league and Felix is in the final year of his contract, Crawford and Buehrle both have another year. What should I do?

Doug Hill’s Edge: Wow! I can see where you are battling with this Ed, parting ways with a talent like Felix Hernandez is tough, however, given the information you provided, this is a deal that needs to be made. If you are losing Hernandez at the end of the season anyway, why not get somebody in return that can equally dominate in a different category. Crawford is a player that puts owners in the top of Stolen Bases by himself and you get an extra year on his contract. Buehrle can’t match the King and is off to his typical slow start, but it is exactly that, typical. Buehrle at the end of the year will have his 13-15 wins and his usual 3.50 ERA. Again, Buehrle is a downgrade, although when packaged with Crawford this deal makes sense. Thanks for the question and good luck!

Fantasy Forecast

For the upcoming weekend, look for some bounce back performances and some slow starters to begin building up some successful outings.

Johan Santana will rebound from the worst outing of his career where he surrendered 4 homeruns, allowing 10 total runs. Santana will be focused and will look to make a statement, the Giants should beware. The Giants have Sunday to look forward to as Tim Lincecum will get a chance to respond and look for “The Freak” to handle the Mets with ease.

Justin Verlander is poised for a dominant outing against the Indians as he faces off against the struggling Justin Masterson. Look for the Tigers to jump on Masterson early and Verlander to cruise confidently with some early run support.

Rich Harden should have no problem building on his last start of 7 scoreless innings, as he faces the Royals Gil Meche at Texas. The potent Rangers offense should have no problem scoring on Meche, who has looked awful thus far. Harden in his career against the Royals is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 4 starts, look for more of the same.

Of course there is the small rivalry series of the Yankees and Red Sox. Expect a low scoring affair tonight with Phil Hughes and Josh Beckett facing off game one. I anticipate Hughes to shut down the Red Sox and the Yankees capitalizing on one bad inning by Beckett. Sorry Red Sox fans, with Sabathia and Burnett to follow, I am sensing a sweep, but anything can happen in Fenway.

Please keep the emails coming with your Fantasy Baseball questions and have it featured and answered in our Fantasy Mail Segment. Get the Edge!

History unfolded when a quiet, almost deadly silent assassin, 26 year old Ubaldo Jimenez was pumping 97 mile per hour fastballs in the ninth inning, finally getting Braves’ catcher Brian McCann to bounce out to Clint Barmes to complete a no-hitter, the first in the Colorado Rockies’ 18 year history. And while fans do see no-hitters every so often, this weekend’s no-hitter was unique in its imperfection. Through the first five innings, the right-hander had thrown 83 pitches, allowing six walks. Jimenez was struggling to control his stuff, even as the Braves continually missed opportunities and were obviously overmatched for that game. As Jimenez struggled to harness his stuff, his Pitching Coach, Bob Apodaca, came out to offer advice after Jimenez walked Braves’ phenom Jason Heyward to lead off the fifth inning. Apodaca suggested eliminating the windup and simply pitching from the stretch position for the remainder of the game. Jimenez complied, recalling another young ace doing the same thing. “I saw Lincecum do it,” Jimenez said. “He wasn’t good from the windup, then he got from the stretch. It came to my mind. But then Apodaca came to me and I was like, ‘Of course I’m going to try it.’”

It obviously worked, as Jimenez needed just 45 pitches for the final four innings to etch his name into the history books. Jimenez, a native of the Dominican Republic, is one of the quiet, elite players who has seemingly become an ace overnight. Because he pitches in a hitter’s haven in a town more consumed with its football team, he has been largely out of the National spotlight. Jimenez is no longer an afterthought. And, according to his Manager, Jim Tracy, the newfound attention and the historic outing couldn’t happen to a better person. “But this is this man’s night tonight. In my opinion, it couldn’t happen to a better human being and a more talented human being than this guy”, proclaimed Tracy. A good guy, a good pitcher, and a budding star: it sounds good, doesn’t it?

While Jimenez’s no-hit performance was the story of Saturday night, he didn’t even participate in the day’s best game. The New York Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals provided that drama as the two teams dueled for 18 scoreless innings before finally finishing it off with a 2-1 Mets’ victory in the 20^th inning. The almost seven hour affair gave fans and pundits alike much to talk about. Only one player, of the 50 available between the two teams did not participate in the contest. The Cardinals, because of Tony LaRussa’s managerial style, had three innings pitched by position players Felipe Lopez and Joe Mather. There wasn’t a dramatic ending. The Mets scored their runs as a result of two sacrifice flies. The Cardinals scored their run on a Yadier Molina single to tie the game in the bottom of the 18^th inning off of Mets’ closer Francisco Rodriguez who stated he threw over 100 warm-up pitches throughout the game.

And yet, even without offensive fireworks, the game was compelling, drawing a fan in on a seven-hour drama series. Johan Santana showed he is not finished as an elite pitcher, tossing 7 scoreless innings, while striking out 9. Jaime Garcia, a 23-year-old southpaw who has comeback from Tommy John Surgery in 2008, showed why he was once considered a top prospect, one-hitting the Mets through 7 innings. Albert Pujols walked 4 times and still had 2 hits in 5 at bats. Yadier Molina caught all 20 innings and started behind the plate Sunday night. The 20-inning game had it all: great pitching, questionable managerial decisions, dramatic situations, and a quiet end.

There was more. The Rays swept the Boston Red Sox in such a fashion that is impossible to think of the playoff possibilities without talking about the 2008 American League champions. The Astros tripled their season win total. The Yankees swept the Rangers, signaling that they are serious contenders to return to the World Series. Roy Halladay won again in a rainy Friday night game, pitching 8 innings of 2 run baseball. Chase Utley hit is 6^th homerun of the season. The 2009 World Series participants are not starting slowly.

The natural ebb and flow of Baseball showed as the Brewers and Nationals squared off. Livan Hernandez threw a complete game shutout against the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday night. The Brewers woke up Sunday and decided to even things out by scoring 10 runs in the first inning off of starter Jason Marquis. Only Baseball could provide that sort of drastic change. One night, an offense can look inept against an inferior pitcher. The next day, the offense can beat, literally, a better opponent.

Andy Pettitte showed why it is always wrong to underestimate the crafty veteran, the player who uses more guile than actual stuff. That guile is built on a foundation of hundreds of starts intermixed with 40 pressure packed postseason appearances. On Sunday, Pettitte pitched 8 innings and allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits, 3 walks, and 4 strikeouts. Despite retirement talks, Pettitte is still a quality pitcher. On the West Coast, two veterans showed that there is still plenty left in their respective tanks. Barry Zito continued his mound rebirth and was throwing a shutout against the Dodgers into the 8^th inning. He was removed after walking veteran Garret Anderson. It was the other veteran, Manny Ramirez who would hit a two run, pinch-hit homerun off of reliever Sergio Romo. Ramirez, a Hall of Famer who seems to be forgotten this season, hit the 584^th homerun of his illustrious career to give the Dodgers a 2-1 victory. Ramirez is now tied with Mike Schmidt for 14^th on the All-Time homerun list.

While age and experience proved valuable, 23-year-old Brian Matusz gave a glimpse at the future by striking out 8 Oakland A’s and halting the Orioles’ 9 game losing streak. 20-year-old Jason Heyward grew his legend even more as he hit the game winning single to beat the Rockies, 4-3, to win the series, despite the aforementioned no-hitter. The very likeable Heyward is off to a .302/.423/.581 start with 3 homeruns and 15 RBI. You get the feeling it won’t be the last of his game winners.

And perhaps the best moment of the baseball weekend wasn’t on television or even in a ballpark. It happened when a son received a “Happy Birthday” phone call from his parents. For the parents, it was the 35^th time they have uttered the words Happy Birthday to their son. The mom recalled the exact events of the son’s birth, the timing, the emotions, the life change. The dad recalled that too, but chose to say that he remembered when he got his first Little League hit. Not only did he remember when, but he told his son where it was hit (between first and second—foreshadowing many more hits in that direction), the uniforms, and the emotions of the day. Over 27 years ago and the dad could still recall. The son smiled and realized that he was lucky for an infinite amount of reasons: for his wife, his daughter, his life, and his parents. But, as he watched one of those great baseball weekends roll by and thought of his Dad’s story, it made him realize why the game consumes so much of our lives.

It is indeed easy to focus on all of the negative. It is thrown in our faces all of the time. It makes for easy stories. But, this April weekend was a perfect storm of baseball action. It gave a no-hitter, a 20-inning game, a weekend full of number one pitchers on the mound, and a weekend full of well-played, varied baseball games. The sport may suffer public relations issues every so often, but it is the only sport that can draw people in and deliver moments at the very beginning of a 162 game season. It was a great weekend for baseball, but it is very likely the first of many great weekends during the 2010 season. And, that is why we all keep coming back.

Prez Stays True

President Obama stayed true to his Chicago roots and donned a White Sox hat as he took the mound in a Nationals Warm up jacket. You can say whatever you want about his politics, but his sports fandom cannot be questioned. Now, if he could just learn how to actually throw the baseball…

Domination

-Albert Pujols: 4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI

-Garrett Jones:  2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

-Tim Lincecum: 7 innings, 4 hits, 7 strikeouts, zeroes everywhere else

-Mark Buerhle:  7 innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, 3 strikeouts, and one heck of a fielding play.

Nice Start

-David Wright homers in his first at bat of the season after hitting just 10 all of last season.

-Johan Santana shows he is still one of the best in the game, winning game one with a 6 inning, 4 hit, 1 run, 1 walk, and 5-strikeout performance.

That’ll Leave a Mark

Carlos Zambrano: 1.1 innings, 6 hits, 8 runs, 2 walks

John Lannon: 3.2 innings, 7 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks

Vicente Padilla: 4.1 innings, 6 hits, 7 runs, 3 walks

Welcome to the Show

Jason Heyward: 2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI. He announces that he will live up to the hype by hitting a homerun in his first at bat.

Nice Introduction

Carlos Gomez: 4-5, 2 runs scored, 1 homerun, 1 RBI, 1 SB

Chone Figgins: 0-3, 2 runs scored, 2 stolen bases, 2 walks.

Casey Kotchman: 2-4, 4 RBI

Placido Polanco: 3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI

Gary Matthews, Jr.: 2-3, 2 runs scored

Roy Halladay: 7 innings, 6 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts

Day of Aces?

Opening Day evokes the image of Baseball’s elite pitchers taking the hill. Yesterday, four teams scored 11 or more runs and 15 teams scored 5 or more runs. Only the Cleveland Indians were held scoreless.

Tuesday Pitching Matchup of the Night

Once again, New York and Boston take honors as the best pitching matchup of the night as the Yankees send AJ Burnett to the mound against Boston’s Jon Lester.

Light Schedule

There are just seven games on tap tonight as the Orioles and Rays are the last teams to make their 2010 debuts. First pitch is 7:10 Eastern time.

Did he really just say that?

“You gotta be careful with him here. He can really swing the bat.”—Mets Broadcaster Keith Hernandez when Johan Santana came to the plate with runners on. Santana is a career .172 hitter.

Opening Night

Baseball got off to a good start with the Yankees and Red Sox playing a typical New York-Boston game that featured power bats, arms, and multiple comebacks. The Nation may be tired of the two teams, but that game epitomized their every game against each other. While one can’t get too much out of game one of 162, there were a few interesting notes to track as the season progresses:

-Jorge Posada is going to become an issue behind the plate. Posada, never mistaken for Johnny Bench, has always had trouble catching pitches up in the zone, but he mishandled to two key pitches late in the game. There will be growing sentiment in New York about decreasing Posada’s time behind the plate. Nick Johnson’s presence makes that difficult.

-Speaking of catchers, if Josh Beckett has another rough outing with Victor Martinez behind the plate, expect Jason Varitek to become his personal catcher.

-Daniel Bard throws really hard.

-The Red Sox will score runs.

-Chan Ho Park is the 2010 version of LaTroy Hawkins for the Yankees. He won’t give them anything if he continues to throw 87 MPH.

-Robinson Cano is going to be mentioned as an MVP Candidate.

Lineup Changes

All teams tinker with lineups, but the New York Mets appear to be making a change that hurts the team. Manager Jerry Manuel stated that Mike Jacobs will hit fourth, splitting up David Wright and Jason Bay. How Manuel can justify giving Jacobs extra at bats over his second best hitter in Bay is mystifying. His rationale? Jacobs has a presence. Yes, Jerry, Jacobs’ .290 OBP is definitely a presence. Manuel’s clock has already started to tick.

Pitching Matchup of the Day

Opening Day should yield quite a few interesting matchups. There are some intriguing ones, but the two best are Justin Verlander squaring off with Zack Greinke and Johan Santana matching up with Josh Johnson.

There are very legitimate reasons to think that way. The Phillies may have improved, making a third consecutive World Series trip a reality. The Braves are a dangerous team again with young pitching and have perhaps the single most exciting first year player, Jason Heyward, ready to make an impact. The Marlins always have the potential if their young pitching can perform to expectations. The Mets did make improvements in the offseason, bringing in Jason Bay, Ryota Igarashi, Kelvim Escobar, Kiko Calero, Rod Barajas, and a whole other gaggle of catchers. Aside from Bay, none of the additions make for good headlines, which highlights the one failure of Omar Minaya this offseason. He failed to bring in any starting pitching help. He had middle of the rotation, cost efficient options, but he decided to put his faith in his own players. While the offseason wasn’t one that grabbed headlines, Minaya did fill most of the Mets’ holes and correctly counted on his own stars to simply bounce back. The criticism levied at Minaya is often well justified. His public speaking skills lead to more controversies. He has proven lax when it comes to supervising his underlings. He isn’t always forthright with the media, but that is more of an organizational flaw rather than a Minaya flaw. But, the one thing that cannot be said about Minaya is that he is a stagnant General Manager. In every offseason, Minaya has made a high-end signing or two. While one could challenge his judgment, he cannot be criticized for his aggressiveness in the free agent and trade markets. Contrary from popular opinion, Minaya did improve the Mets heading into the season.

For the 2010 Mets it is important to separate the reality of their situation from the drama created last season or the organization’s endless stream embarrassing press conferences. The reality is that they have lost two of their most important regular players for at least the first month of the season. This time, however, the situation is different. Last season, because of the pressure to win in a new stadium, the Mets seemed to try to push their players back on the field, making a moderate injury even worse. This season, the injuries have happened before the season starts. It is not Minaya’s fault that they don’t have an adequate backups. No team does; if Derek Jeter were to miss a month of the season, the Yankees would not have someone on the level of Jeter. One only has to look at Cody Ransom who was Alex Rodriguez’s replacement for the first month of the season. No team can be prepared to adequately replace a star. Minaya and the Mets cannot be criticized for not having the answers to injuries; no team has answers to losing one of their stars let alone two, three, or four of them. Surely, the Mets’ public handling of the injuries was poor, but they are not the cause nor or they to be blamed for the bevy of injuries over the last year. This time around, however, the 2010 Mets can withstand these injuries in the short run. This year, there is plenty to be optimistic about; the Mets can withstand these injuries and compete for a playoff berth despite starting the season without Reyes or Beltran.

Reasons for Mets’ Optimism

Reason One: April

This year, the injuries happened before the season even started. Some could paint this as a bad sign, but omens and signs are not things to judge a season. Beltran has already had his knee surgery and is in the process of rehabbing. He isn’t lost for the season. Last year, once he got hurt and was finally put on the disabled list, it was too late to bring him back. This year, barring something unexpected, he will be healthy. Perhaps he won’t run as well as he once did, but he is still one of the few elite centerfielders in the game. Reyes does have a serious thyroid condition, but it is something that can and will be controlled. Millions of people suffer from his type of thyroid condition. It is something that can be treated and he will be back. Sure, it is a setback after his hamstring troubles, but Reyes will not miss the season.

The Mets first month of the season does prove to be difficult. They will open up with six games at home, playing three each against the Marlins and Nationals. They then go on a seven game road trip with dates against the Rockies and Cardinals. Following the road trip, they have a nine game homestand against the Cubs, Braves, and Dodgers followed up with three games in Philadelphia. Those teams are tough competition, but if the Mets can stay close to .500 and then get their stars back, the season won’t be lost. Knowing that Beltran and Reyes are coming back, the remaining Mets just have to stay close to have a chance. Even if there are complications, there is enough time to bring someone in either from trade or the waiver wire. As stated, Omar Minaya is aggressive when it comes to trading. If it looks like either Reyes or Beltran will have a significant setback, he will bring in a more suitable regular.

Reason Two: Jason Bay

One can certainly criticize the long-term contract handed to Jason Bay. But, for the 2010 season, Bay is an excellent addition. He is a huge difference from last season and certainly a player capable of carrying a team, especially early in the season. Last season, Bay hit 15 homeruns and drove in 49 runs during the first two months of the season. For his career, he is a .283/.406/.503 hitter in April and a .307/.394/.614 hitter in May. The month of May happens to be his best power month as well. Last season, it was Bay who carried the Red Sox while David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia stumbled out of the gate. Having Bay instead of Gary Sheffield, Jeremy Reed, and Cory Sullivan patrolling left field will help the Mets’ lineup score some runs. Last season, when Beltran and Reyes were out it was David Wright and a cast of backups trying to win games. This year, Wright and Bay can help power a team that also has a deeper lineup.

Reason Three: Johan Santana

It was obvious that Santana wasn’t quite himself last season; his season ended early with elbow surgery. 2009 was the worst season of his career and he still posted an ERA of 3.13, a WHIP of 1.212, and an ERA+ of 131. In other words, even without being healthy, he was still one of the best in the game. Despite the fact that the Mets mishandled much of last season’s injury news and procedures, they handled Santana perfectly. He had the surgery and is 100 percent healthy this season. Expect a motivated Santana to re-establish himself as the best in the game, especially with all of the talk about Roy Halladay being the best in the division. Despite their offensive losses, Santana gives the Mets a legitimate chance to win every fifth day. They were robbed of that in the second half last season.

Reason Four: Lineup Depth

Last season, the Mets received zero production from their catchers, minimal production from their leftfielders, and almost zero from their shortstops. This season, the Mets are better prepared with a deeper lineup. Jason Bay, as stated, is an immediate upgrade and legitimate cleanup hitter. He will provide David Wright the protection he never received last season. Catcher Rod Barajas isn’t a star and his on base percentage is terrible, but he does provide power from the catcher spot, something the Mets haven’t had since Mike Piazza. In 11 Major League seasons, Barajas has only played in 120 games twice. In both of those seasons, he hit over 19 homeruns and drove in over 60 runs. Comparing that to the 2009 Mets’ backstops (.256/.307/.387), Barajas is a solid upgrade.

The Mets will also have better outfield depth with Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr. Matthews has long been criticized because of the contract he signed with the Angels, but he is an adequate fourth or fifth outfielder getting paid a couple of a million bucks by the Mets. He certainly is better than Jeremy Reed or anyone else that ran out to replace Beltran or man leftfield. The Mets’ offense won’t compare with the Phillies, but with two players, Wright and Bay, as run producers surrounded by Luis Castillo, Jeff Francouer, Barajas, Pagan, and Daniel Murphy, the Mets can hold their ground until Beltran and Reyes return. The Mets won’t win because of their offense, but it can be adequate for a month or so.

Reason Five: Expected Improvement from the Middle

Mike Pelfrey is just 26 years old and entering his third full Major League season. He regressed during his sophomore season, falling victim to the “one bad inning” syndrome quite a bit. But, he still has the stuff to be a quality number two or three starter. He will be better than he was in 2009; he is too talented not to be. His 5.03 ERA and 10.4 hits per nine innings are certainly terrible, but he did raise his strikeouts per nine innings to an acceptable level, his FIP was 4.39, and his BABIP was a bit high (.321). There are solid reasons to believe he will improve and continue his development. Young pitching of the non-elite variety, often takes a little time to develop consistency.

Perez has been terrible since Rick Peterson was fired along with Willie Randolph two seasons ago. Last season, he was limited to just 14 terrible starts (6.82 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 7.91 BB/9). He may never reach his 2007 season again, but Perez still has the stuff (8.45 K/9 in his awful season) to be a league average starter. Can he do better? Sure. But, it would be best not to count on that. If Perez can be a league average starter, he would be a stark improvement over last season’s fourth and fifth starters, Tim Redding and Livan Hernandez. If Perez can make 25 to 30 starts and pitch as a league average pitcher, the Mets can stock their bullpen more efficiently with the likes of Fernando Nieve to serve as a long reliever/spot starter.

John Maine’s question has always been health. When healthy, he has proven to be better than a league average starter. Thus far, it looks as if 2010 is the first season in a couple of years where Maine enters the spring completely healthy. In 15 starts during 2009, Maine was the definition of league average. Health should allow him to trust his stuff more and avoid so many walks. A rebound to his 2007 form is realistic if he remains healthy.

Nobody in this group is a star, however; they have the potential to be slightly above average. Slightly above league average is good enough when Johan Santana is the leader of the rotation. The middle of the rotation is questionable, but they have given good answers before.

Reason Six: The Kids

It has been quite some time since the Mets can say they have a few exciting prospects on the cusp of making a difference on the Major League level. First Baseman Ike Davis has shown impressive power thus far in the spring. In 10 games, he has hit three doubles and two homeruns. The 23-year-old left handed hitter hasn’t played above double-A, but he hit .298/.381/.524 last season with 20 homeruns in 114 games. He is likely ticketed to triple-A to begin the season, but if he keeps up the pace for the remaining three weeks, he could force his way onto the roster. Daniel Murphy and Mike Jacobs will most likely begin the year at first base, but if Davis continues to pound the ball at the triple-A level, expect a quick call up. Once he is up, he is a major power upgrade at first base.

Jon Niese is just 23 years old, but is the favorite to be the Mets’ fifth starter. He made five starts in his first Major League action last season, but the southpaw has a solid Minor League resume and has demonstrated the ability to strike batters out and to elicit groundballs. Of all the Mets’ pitching questions, Niese has the best upside. He will go through the typical rookie peaks and valleys, but he will be better than what the Mets threw on the mound last season.

Jenrry Mejia is making a legitimate case to make the Mets out of spring training. The 20 year old has pitched 7.1 spring innings and has allowed just 5 hits while striking out 8. He struggled as a 19 year old in double-A last season (0-5, 4.47 ERA in 10 starts), but he still showed the ability to strikeout hitters (9.5 K/9). Mejia has been groomed as a starter, but Manager Jerry Manuel sees him as potentially dominant late inning reliever. The Mets do have a decision to make. Do they send their most exciting prospect to the Minors to continue to work as a starter or do they place him in the bullpen and allow him to develop much like Johan Santana did in Minnesota? Either way, Mejia will be a factor in 2010 at some point. Much like Texas Rangers’ 20 year old phenom Neftali Feliz or the Yankees’ Joba Chamberlain in 2008, Mejia may have more of an impact in the bullpen before trying to become a Major League starter.

The Mets farm system is quite thin, but it does have three players who will impact the 2010 season. Last season, the Mets were faced with force-feeding Fernando Martinez at the Major League level. This season, they have more depth and better prospects almost ready to help.

Reason Seven: Rebounds are Realistic

Omar Minaya has been criticized for stating that he believes his team can rebound. Minaya is actually correct as he is hoping for a rebound from players who have already proven that 2009 was an aberration. David Wright can return to his 2008 and 2009 form. Maine, Pelfrey, and Perez can be a solid middle of the rotation because it has happened before. Reyes and Beltran can be back and healthy at some point in May. Johan Santana is healthy. Francisco Rodriguez looked bored last season. He likely rebounds after a terrible second half.

Some teams bring back a core of players and hope for improvement. Minaya brought back his core and is just hoping for a return to form. Hoping for improvement might never yield the desired results. Believing in your players based on past performance often leads to good results. None of the “rebound” candidates are too old or have demonstrated a regression of skill. It is a realistic idea to expect Wright, Reyes, and Beltran to perform to their career norms. It is realistic to expect the dominant Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez.

Closing Thoughts

When a team loses two of its best players, the effects are always devastating. The Mets lost a middle of the order hitter and their leadoff hitter (don’t believe that experiment). They both produce so much in terms of offense. But, given the timing of their injuries and rehabilitations, the Mets should have both players on the field for most of 2010.

The Mets have enough to stay in the race as long as both players return in May. Backups cannot be expected to play well for an entire season, but a healthy Alex Cora is adequate for a month. General Manager Omar Minaya has time to make changes and search the waiver wire if an upgrade is needed. The start of the season allows for depth moves and Minaya will likely make one. The lone danger of the two injuries, besides the on the field impact, is that it becomes another excuse. Last season was terrible luck for the Mets with their player losses and the timing of those losses. Minaya was almost powerless as too many players went down with injuries. He and Jerry Manuel couldn’t have gotten fired after last season because of the extent of injuries. The Mets organization cannot allow that to happen this season. If Reyes and Beltran are out longer, the Mets must make improvements. A disastrous 2010 has to be something that Minaya and Manuel receive responsibility. 2009 can be billed as an aberration, but 2010 cannot be a repeat. If it is, the Mets must reconfigure their front office immediately. There are no excuses for 2010.

It might not look good for the Mets, but if the two players, Reyes and Beltran, are close to being on track for a return, it will simply be a month to tread water. Their division is tough, but the Mets could be a surprise in 2010. It’s a long shot, but there is enough talent to compete if health doesn’t let the Mets down. Hope is not lost for the Mets. They merely have to stay close during the first month and then add the final two pieces of their batting order in May. If they can manage that, their season can be successful.

When surveying the landscape of today’s great pitchers, the same names will always come up. Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, the 2009 Cy Young Award winners, will be mentioned, as will Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, and Jon Lester. If that question was asked just two years ago, the answer would have likely been Johan Santana, then of the Minnesota Twins. The soon-to-be 31 year old has been largely ignored for two reasons. One, he is coming off of a season that ended prematurely with minor elbow surgery to remove some bone spurs. Secondly, he is the star of the New York Mets, a team that has a difficult time cultivating any type of positive image. Despite his employer and his advancing age, Johan Santana is about to remind the Baseball world just how special he really is. For his fledgling team, he is the one legitimate reason to hope that 2010 can be a year to surprise their divisional opponents.

Loss of Stuff?

Much has been made of Santana’s loss of velocity over the past three seasons. Surely, the velocity has decreased. In 2007, he averaged a 91.8 miles per hour fastball. It “fell” to 91.0 MPH in 2008 while “falling” once again to 90.6 in 2009. His changeup hovered around 81 MPH over the last three seasons. His slider has decreased from a 2007 high of 84.9 MPH to a 2009 low of 82.2 MPH. The numbers have dropped, but they have not dropped at an alarming rate. When considering that he knew that he had bone chips and that it was only a matter of time until it had to be taken care of before the beginning of the 2009 season, the slight dip in velocity was to be expected.

Even if Santana is losing velocity (which, of course, is a natural), his arsenal allows him to continue his dominance. With an outstanding changeup, Santana can compensate for a loss of fastball velocity by decreasing his changeup speed. As one can see, his changeup was approximately 10 miles per hour slower than his fastball over the last three seasons. Santana is a technician on the mound and will adjust if needed.  It would be a different story if Santana used his fastball exclusively to get outs or was too dependent on strikeouts. Instead, he is a pitcher who uses a complete arsenal while changing speeds and locations too.

The other “loss of stuff” argument is the decrease of strikeouts since Santana arrived in Flushing. In his four full seasons as a starter for the Minnesota Twins, Santana averaged 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. With the Mets, he has averaged 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. It is significant, but it could be a sign of a more economical, wiser Santana. Consider that Santana averaged a swing and miss on pitches in the strike zone about 17.5 percent of the time during his last three seasons in Minnesota. With the Mets, he elicited swings and misses (on pitches in the strike zone) 17.5 percent of the time in 2008 and 16.2 percent in 2009. He is still missing bats; he still has the ability to strike hitters out. Perhaps, he pitched a bit more because of his elbow rather than pile up strikeouts and pitch counts. A pitcher doesn’t miss that many bats with poor stuff.

Aging pitchers are supposed to lose velocity as they get older, but to make the conclusion that Santana has lost the ability to be an elite pitcher is foolish. His stuff is still elite. He is a pitcher who compensated for injury last season (and perhaps the season before) and was still able to be one of the best in the game. Entering camp fully healthy (with no indication otherwise), there is no reason to believe that Santana won’t be in line for his third Cy Young Award.

Worst Case Last Season

2009 was the worst season on a number of levels for the Mets. They lost their entire offensive core to injury at one point in the season. None of their pitching questions came up with any viable answers. In the medical staff’s one proper move of 2009, Santana was shut down in order to protect their investment and to allow a full rehabilitation for the 2010 season. Like the team, 2009 was the worst season of Johan Santana’s starting pitcher career. In 25 starts, he posted a record of 13-9 with a 3.13 ERA. In 166.2 innings, he allowed 156 hits, 46 walks, 146 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 1.212. His ERA+ of 131 along with his ERA, WHIP, hits allowed per nine innings (8.4), walks, and strikeouts per nine innings were the worst of his career.

Take that in: 2009 was the worst season of his career.

Yet, his ERA was 15^th best in Baseball, while his WHIP ranked 19^th. In his worst season, Santana was clearly one of the best, despite injury. His season actually looks worse because of the June 14^th drubbing he took at the hands of the Yankees (3 innings, 9 hits, 9 runs) that raised his ERA nearly a run. That game certainly counts and it shouldn’t be dismissed, but it was more of an anomaly that an indication of his season. The Mets enter 2010 knowing that even at his worst, Santana is still worth every cent of his contract.

True Hope

The New York Mets have been the laughingstock of the winter. It is easy to point out all that they have done wrong from the medical side, to failing to add a pitcher, to signing Mike Jacobs, and the whole Carlos Beltran ordeal. They do have holes to fill; there cannot be any thought otherwise. But, there is one thing that the Mets and their fans can hold onto as the one legitimate hope for 2010. That hope is 20 percent.

In 20 percent of their games, the New York Mets will have the better pitcher on the mound. That includes matchups with Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens, Carlos Zambrano, or any other pitcher in the game. The 2009 team lost approximately eight starts from Santana. Most of is 25 starts were made with discomfort. However, if Santana had made those eight starts, the Mets would’ve gained approximately five wins, bringing their total to 75. It can also be assumed that the bullpen wouldn’t have been as taxed which may have won the Mets some games too. Suddenly, that disaster of a season is closer to a .500 season. If the Mets had managed 80 or 81 victories, they would’ve been applauded for being gritty and withstanding all of the injuries. The season could be blamed on the losses of Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, John Maine, and Carlos Beltran, and the inconsistencies of Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez. But, the disaster truly began the day Santana stopped taking his turn in the rotation.

The Mets can sell everyone on the health of Reyes and the return to form of David Wright. But, their true sell is knowing that their ace is beginning the season healthy and is likely to continue to make at least 33 starts a season. The returning offense definitely helps and is needed, but 20 percent of games started by Santana is needed even more. There is the true hope for a rebound 2010 for the Mets. That’s not a dream or wishful thinking. That is based on six years of elite level pitching that is backed with two Cy Young Awards, a 118-57 record and a 3.02 ERA as a starter, and a pitcher who has a 3.38 FIP. It also helps that Santana took a liking to Citi Field last season. In 14 starts, he was 8-3 with a 2.43 ERA in 96.1 innings. He allowed 82 hits while striking out 86 batters.

Closing Thoughts

It is easy to forget the excellence of Santana after his 2009 season, which was still pretty good despite injury. With a park that suits his flyball tendencies, an arsenal that translates well with age, and a work ethic that is unparalleled, Johan Santana looks ready to reclaim his title of “Best Pitcher in Baseball”.  In doing so, the quiet assassin gives the 2010 Mets their most realistic reason to hope for success.

Peavy Returning

Jake Peavy took another step towards helping the White Sox’s playoff push last night as he threw five shutout innings in his rehab start. He threw 52 strikes and 28 balls, striking out three and walking two. The White Sox have announced that he will return to the team and start Saturday. Because Jose Contreras threw over 80 pitches in less than three innings of work, the pull to bring back Peavy became too great. He’s already thrown 80 pitches and can likely throw 90-100 next start. Sure, he may not be as sharp as he needs to be, but he still represents the White Sox’s best chance to win. If he can find his stuff quickly, the White Sox are a dangerous team. The AL Central race will be an exciting race with the Tigers and White Sox battling it out and the Twins charging back into it as well.

Giambi to Colorado

If this was 2002, this news would have sent shockwaves around Baseball with the powerful Giambi heading to Coors Field. But, the 38 year old Giambi brings his .193/.332/.364 batting line with 11 homeruns and 40 RBI to be a Rockies bench player. The Rockies state that he will spend the rest of August in Triple-A rounding into shape before returning in September. Giambi didn’t hit well in Oakland (obviously), but he did 50 walks, still showed power, and is useful off the bench. In 59 career pinch hitting appearances, he’s a .283/.356/.509 hitter with three homeruns. Think of this in the same light as the Phillies acquiring Matt Stairs last season. He’s a power threat off the bench to use late in games. If the Rockies can find their way into the playoffs, Giambi will be a threat late in games.

Yes, It Can Get Worse

The Mets postponed Johan Santana’s start because of elbow discomfort. If the Mets’ history of handling injuries is any indication, the news cannot be good. Three words: Shut Him Down. Ok, let’s add a fourth word: immediately.

Rockies-Dodgers

If you haven’t paid attention, the Rockies and Giants have cut into the Dodgers’ double digit lead. It is officially a race in the West. The Rockies will welcome the Dodgers to Mile High for a three game series before a weekend series against the Giants. Tonight’s matchup is Jason Hammel against Clayton Kershaw. Hammel has been a nice surprise for the Rockies with his 8-7 record and 4.54 ERA in 125 innings. He’s given up a ton of hits (157), but has limited his walks to 31. He’s started against the Dodgers on July 1^st and threw 8 innings of one run ball in a loss. Kershaw is 8-7 with a 2.96 ERA. In 139.2 innings, he’s allowed 100 hits, 80 walks, and 147 strikeouts. While the walks are high, he’s kept the ball in the yard, allowing just 5 homeruns. He’s having a great sophomore season, but has a terrible history in Colorado. In four career starts in Colorado, he is 2-2 with an 8.24 ERA.

Pitching Matchup of the Night

Actually there are two excellent matchups on tap tonight. First, Wandy Rodriguez squares off against Adam Wainwright. Rodriguez is 12-7 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.246 WHIP, and an 8.2 K/9 average. Wainwright, who may be Baseball’s most underrated pitcher, is 14-7 with a 2.61 ERA, a 1.246 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9 average.

Later on this evening Dan Haren will oppose Matt Cain. Haren, toiling for a disappointing Diamondbacks’ team, is 12-8 with a 2.74 ERA, a Major League leading 0.925 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9 average. Cain is equally impressive with his 12-4 record, 2.43 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, and a 6.8 K/9 average.